Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Is a Rotten Apple

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Without a doubt, if ever there was a candidate for a “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” stock, it would be Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD).

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Is a Rotten Apple
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Not long ago, on a CNBC roundtable segment, an analyst proposed a “buy” recommendation on AMD stock. The other pundits laughed. And then they laughed some more. When the humor appeared to fade, they laughed again, just for good measure.

It took a while, but the joke was ultimately on the naysayers. Last year was a stunning turnaround for Advanced Micro Devices. From start to finish, AMD stock returned long-suffering shareholders more than 300% in profits.

To put that into perspective, 2016 was the biggest year in its publicly traded existence. More impressively, AMD eclipsed the performance of 2009, when several stocks were clawing back from 2008’s devastation.

What’s particularly endearing for both present stakeholders and prospective buyers is that Advanced Micro Devices is not slowing down. For 2017, AMD stock is up just shy of 30%. That’s enough for a very solid year for most people’s portfolios.

In fact, if it keeps up this work rate, AMD could challenge for yet another triple-digit return. That would make consecutive triple-digit returns, something that hasn’t happened for AMD stock since 1982 and 1983.

Although the prospect for a history-making event is extremely enticing for investors, we also have to remember the risks. Advanced Micro Devices has long played second-fiddle to Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) for a reason. It also gave a foothold for semiconductor rivals like Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).

The question is, which AMD will show up this time around?

Many Reasons to Love AMD Stock

AMD stock, AMD
Source: Source: JYE Financial, unless otherwise indicated
It’s running high on momentum, and sometimes, that’s all you really need.

But as InvestorPlace writer Tom Taulli asserts, other substantive factors are working in favor of AMD stock.

Having a strong business is all about people. And AMD has a powerhouse leadership, starting from the top. At the helm is CEO Lisa Su, a phenomenal executive who has a doctorate’s degree in electrical engineering from MIT. She has also served in high-level positions at renowned firms Freescale Semiconductor Ltd (NYSE:FSL) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM).

Along with great people are products. Historically, this is one area that has tripped up AMD stock. Although, it’s always been cheaper in price compared to rival Intel’s offerings, AMD semiconductors have wrestled with the quality stigma.

The company hopes to change that with its Ryzen CPU series. Imbued with the latest technological firepower, it can legitimately challenge Intel for the throne. True to its heritage, the AMD units are priced lower than the competition. As Su succinctly states, “More performance, half the price.”

Finally, the broader fundamentals are supportive of AMD stock. The supply glut that gutted the semiconductor industry is easing, facilitating recoveries of left-for-dead tech firms.

Don’t Look Under the Hood!

As great as the bullish argument for AMD stock is, I still have my doubts. No one doubts the abilities of Advanced Micro Devices’ CEO, but Su is a genius, not a miracle worker. In this case, the problem is bigger than her or anyone else.

Last time around, I mentioned that AMD stock has shifted from one state of distress to another. This assessment was based on the venerable Altman Z-Score indicator. And although it’s improving in this department, AMD has been distressed for the past six consecutive years.

But the fine print is in which specific factors AMD is improving, and not improving. The Z-Score is aggregated from a list of five factors. By far, the largest improvement is in the ratio between “market value of equity” and “book value of total liabilities.” Although important, this doesn’t tell us much about company performance.

What does illuminate performance are the Z-Score’s earnings and sales generation factors. For both metrics, AMD stock is still considered distressed. That likely won’t change until the semiconductor firm can address the deep-seated problems that got it in trouble initially.

As a small caveat, I do think that the recovery in AMD stock is nothing short of remarkable. It might have some legs to go a little bit further. But to stake a major position on the back of exceptionally poor fundamentals? I’m crazy, but I’m not that crazy.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/03/advanced-micro-devices-inc-amd-stock-is-a-rotten-apple/.

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