Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Hit $950? It’s Not a Given.

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AMZN stock - Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Hit $950? It’s Not a Given.

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The flood of corporate earnings reports reaches a fever pitch Thursday, and online retailing giant Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) will be among those releasing their reports after the close of trading this afternoon. While Amazon has a history of strong performances in the earnings confessional, the fate of AMZN stock is not a foregone conclusion. Especially with revenue growth for Amazon Web Services (AWS) cooling off last quarter.

So today, we’re going to look at how Amazon trading is shaping up ahead of its Q1 report this afternoon, and suggest a couple of trade ideas to position yourself for profits.

Diving into the numbers, Wall Street is expecting a profit of $1.13 per share, up 5.6% year-over-year, on revenue of $35.31 billion — up 21.2% from year ago levels. But AWS will be a considerable focus this time around. The division saw revenue growth slow to a gain of 47% to $3.5 billion last quarter, down from 55% in the third quarter and 58% in the second quarter of 2016. Currently, analysts are expecting AWS revenue to come in at $3.6 billion.

Taking a closer look at expectations, sentiment is running rather bullish on AMZN stock ahead of earnings.

EarningsWhispers.com places the whisper number at $1.20 per share, a full 9 cents ahead of the consensus. Furthermore, Thomson/First Call reports that 40 of the 44 analysts following Amazon rate the shares a “buy” or better. However, there is some dissent in the ranks, as Raymond James recently downgraded the stock to “Market Perform” from “Outperform.”

On the other hand, options traders are heavily toward the bearish on AMZN stock ahead of the report. For instance, AMZN’s April/May put/call open interest ratio arrives at 1.22, with puts outnumbering calls among near-term options. Furthermore, this ratio rises to 1.25 when we zero in on just the April 28 series (i.e., those options most affected by Amazon’s quarterly report).

AMZN stock chart view 1
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Despite the potential for AWS to affect the post-earnings move in Amazon stock, April 28 implieds are pricing in a potential post-earnings move of only about 4% for the shares — a figure below historical volatility for the shares ahead of such events.

In short, Amazon options are relatively inexpensive at the moment.

Currently, the upper bound of a post-earnings move rests near $947, while the lower bound lies near $873.

2 Trades for AMZN Stock

Put Sell: With unknowns surrounding AWS revenue, and Amazon bouncing around $900 for the past month, the safest play ahead of earnings may be an out-of-the-money put sell position. Currently, the 28 April $850 put sell looks like a solid way to capitalize on Amazon’s technical support.

At last check, this put was bid at 97 cents, or $97 per contract. The upside to this put sell strategy is that you keep the premium as long as AMZN stock closes above $850 when 28 April options expire at the end of this week. The downside is that should Amazon shares trade below $850 before expiration, you could be assigned 100 shares for each put sold at a cost of $850 per share.

Call Spread: On the other hand, if you have the risk tolerance to buck the bearish trend in the options pits, consider a May $920/$950 bull call spread.

At last check, this spread was offered at $10.11, or $1,011 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $930.11, while a maximum profit of $19.89 is possible if AMZN stock closes at or above $950 when May options expire.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/04/will-amazon-com-inc-amzn-stock-hit-950-its-not-a-given/.

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