Tesla, Inc. Is Nothing More Than a Gamble

If Tesla can't meet the high sales implied by shares' ridiculous price, TSLA stock will collapse

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) was a show-me stock going into its first quarter results, and it remains a show-me stock after the results. An extraordinarily high valuation is a clear signal that TSLA stock is pricing in mass adoption of the company’s vehicles. But nothing in Tesla’s most recent earnings report — or nothing the EV maker has shown to date — can tell us that this actually will come to pass.

Given the competitive, cannibalization, tax and macro headwinds it’s facing, buying Tesla stock right now is more of a roulette spin than an investment.

Those of you who aren’t interested in Las Vegas probably shouldn’t bother with this Palo Alto product, either.

Tesla Is Built on a Pile of Hope

TSLA stock has a market valuation of $51 billion — higher than General Motors Company (NYSE:GM).

That’s despite the fact that the latter sold more than 191,000 vehicles to U.S. consumers last month alone, while Tesla estimates it will sell 47,000 to 50,000 vehicles in the first half of the year. That’s also despite the fact that while GM is already selling nearly 10 million cars a year, Tesla merely plans to produce 1 million vehicles annually by 2020. And that’s despite the fact that GM is profitable, while Tesla is not.

There are other signs that Tesla might not meet some of its expectations.

Total customer deposits for its vehicles actually dropped by more than $47 million this quarter. Furthermore, as of a year ago, the company disclosed that it had received 373,000 deposits of $1,000 for the Model 3 vehicles — less than two months of U.S. sales alone for GM, but more important, it appears the company hasn’t updated that number since May 2016, suggesting it hasn’t exactly swelled by leaps and bounds.

Tesla’s valuation isn’t based on concrete numbers, but largely on hope, and the one-of-a-kind cult personality of its CEO and founder, Elon Musk.

TSLA stock chart

Musk is co-founder of a component of PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL), a founder of space exploration company SpaceX, and a man who built a new type of auto company with a fabulous, worldwide reputation from scratch an amazing individual and a towering technology guru.

But can he convince tens of millions of Americans to buy electric cars that he estimates will cost at least $42,000 per vehicle while facing significant competition? Or, alternatively, can he find a way to drastically lower the cost of his vehicles?

Those are the questions we need answers to, and we simply don’t have them.

The Tesla brand commands tremendous respect, but as alluded to above, competition is coming. By 2019, Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Jaguar will all sport new, higher-end electric vehicles. While they don’t have the EV cache of Tesla, they do have the luxury cache — so those vehicles will have draw.

Meanwhile, Tesla also has to worry about the Model 3 going up against offerings from Nissan Motor Co (OTCMKTS:NSANY), Hyundai, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and GM.

And it has become apparent that Tesla is even worried about competing with itself.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, http://investorplace.com/2017/05/tesla-inc-tsla-stock-is-nothing-more-than-a-gamble/.

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