Will Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Stock Be Denied $1,000?

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GOOGL stock - Will Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Stock Be Denied $1,000?

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If you got into either of the Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) trades I recommended at the beginning of May, congratulations — you closed out solid winners! Now it’s time to reload with a couple more trades on GOOGL stock.

A quick recap of the last winners: The May $900 put sell position stayed well out of the money, allowing traders to bank the premium received (about $263 per contract). The May $930/$950 bull call spread hit its maximum target at expiration, too — which if you were able to enter near the prices I saw that morning, netted you a gain of roughly 150% in less than a month.

But looking ahead to June, my enthusiasm toward Alphabet stock has waned considerably.

It’s not that I like Google’s parent any less as a company — I’m still gung-ho about Alphabet’s leadership in the A.I. and self-driving car markets. It’s just that GOOGL shares have some considerable short-term detractors that make trading bullish options strategies right now more than a little risky (even for options trades).

GOOGL stock chart view 1
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For instance, GOOGL stock has traded in overbought territory for the better part of the past month. If not for Alphabet’s blowout quarterly earnings report, the shares may have already staged a minor correction to alleviate the issue.

Additionally, the stock is closing in on $1,000 — an area of considerable technical and psychological resistance.

In short, it will take more than an unwinding of bearish sentiment to push Alphabet shares north of this hurdle. Anything less than a major product reveal, boosted earnings guidance or a major broad market rally won’t do the trick.

In fact, most of the so-called “FANG” members are feeling similar pain.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is closing in on its own showdown with $1,000, while Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is struggling near $150 and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is stalling near $160. What’s more, analysts are beginning to raise concerns about the valuation of Internet stocks — a la the dot-com bubble, which could create some drag on the group.

Giving sentiment a once-over reveals that there is little in the way of room for upgrades or price-target increases.

Currently, Thomson/First Call reports that 40 of the 46 analysts following GOOGL stock rate the shares a “buy” or better — unchanged from the beginning of May. Furthermore, the 12-month consensus price target rests at $1,061.67, with most analysts already pricing in a move to $1,000 or above.

Alphabet options traders remain cautious with the shares trading near record highs. At last check, the June put/call open interest ratio came in at 1.04, with puts and calls in near parity among front-month contracts.

Additionally, June implieds are pricing in a potential move of only about 3% for GOOGL shares through expiration. This places the upper bound at about $1,021, with the lower bound at $959.

2 Trades for GOOGL Stock

Put Sell: The safest course of action when it comes to trading Alphabet’s options at the moment is to sell out-of-the-money premium. With valuation concerns floating around Wall Street, a bit of short-term caution is warranted. Along those lines, the June $950 put has plenty of potential.

At last check, this put was bid at $2.85, or $285 per contract. The upside to this put sell strategy is that you keep the premium as long as GOOGL stock closes above $950 when these options expire. The downside is that should Alphabet trade below $950 ahead of expiration, you could be assigned 100 shares for each sold put at a cost of $950 per share.

Put Spread: While I don’t expect a major decline from Alphabet stock, the shares could use a bit of a retreat to work out their current overbought condition. If you’re willing to take a risk and bet on a near-term retreat for GOOGL, then a June $960/$980 bear put spread offers a nice potential return.

At last check, this spread was offered at $4.71, or $471 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $975.29, while a maximum profit of $15.29, or $1,529 per pair of contracts, is possible if GOOGL stock closes at or below $960 when June options expire.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/05/will-alphabet-inc-googl-stock-be-denied-1000/.

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