Oversold Twitter Inc (TWTR) Stock Is Ready for a Bounce

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After last month’s abysmal second-quarter earnings report, I’ve finally added Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) to my persona non grata list of stocks to avoid buying long term. The company had a chance to turn things around last quarter by proving it could shift business models into live TV streaming, but that chance was squandered, and users just aren’t buying.

TWTR Stock: Oversold Twitter Inc (TWTR) Stock Is Ready for a Bounce

What’s more, Twitter doubled down on an uncomfortable situation for active users. With nonexistent growth in its monthly users, Twitter decided to launch a subscription-based service for advertisers. Sure, $99 per month to promote tweets is an excellent idea for advertisers. But with Twitter users already reluctant to increase their daily usage, a flood of new ads in their feed isn’t going to get those numbers up.

As such, I’ve added Twitter to the “no buy” list, alongside its social media cousin Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) and struggling wearables manufacturer Fitbit Inc. (NYSE:FIT) — all of which have yet to figure out how to grow profits and users in an increasingly tight market.

However, that doesn’t mean that TWTR stock doesn’t still fit the bill for a bullish short-term speculative options play. Buying TWTR stock is certainly out of the picture for the time being, but there are a few compelling reasons to bet on a short-term rally that could put some cash in your pocket.

Twitter Technicals & Sentiment

TWTR Stock
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After the pounding Twitter stock took in the wake of last month’s quarterly report, the shares are now trading near oversold territory. In short, the selloff was a bit overdone. Furthermore, TWTR stock has found support in the $16 region and has plenty of room to rebound before it hits any major technical snags — the 50-day and 200-day moving averages currently rest more than 7% above TWTR’s current perch.

Meanwhile, Twitter has amassed quite a bearish following on Wall Street. According to Thomson/First Call, only four of the 36 analysts following TWTR stock rate the shares a “buy” or better. What’s more, the 12-month price target rests at $16.04, just below the stock’s Thursday open of $16.15.

On the short-interest front, profit taking is the name of the game. During the most recent reporting period, the number of TWTR shares sold short plunged 14% to 51.9 million. With plenty of traders still holding TWTR short, more profit taking could provide buying pressure for the shares.

Finally, TWTR’s options activity is also showing an unwinding of bearish sentiment. Currently, the September put/call open interest ratio for TWTR stock comes in at 0.74, having fallen from a perch north of 0.90 in early August. While some of this decline can be attributed to profit taking, the fact that speculative traders aren’t moving in to double down on TWTR’s decline indicates a hesitance that may signal short-term upside for the shares.

How much of a move is possible? September implieds are pricing in a potential move of more than 8% heading into expiration. That places TWTR stock’s upper bound at $17.30, while the lower bound rests at $14.70.

2 Trades for TWTR Stock

Call Spread: While I don’t believe that TWTR will break out above its 200-day moving average without a major development, there is still room for profit on a short-term bounce. Along those lines, a Sep $16/$17 bull call spread has the potential for returns of nearly 100%.

At last check, this spread was offered at 36 cents, or $36 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $16.36, while a maximum profit of 64 cents, or $64 per pair of contracts, is possible if TWTR stock closes at or above $17 when September options expire.

Put Sell: For those not wanting to place an outright bullish bet on TWTR stock, a Sep $15 put sell may fit the bill. At last check, this put was bid at 20 cents, or $20 per contract. As long as TWTR trades above $15 through September option expiration, traders who open this position will keep the initial premium received. However, if TWTR trades below $15 before expiration, you may be assigned 100 shares for each contract sold at a cost of $15 each.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/08/oversold-twitter-inc-twtr-stock-bounce/.

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