Should I Buy Or Sell Tesla (TSLA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

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Tesla (TSLA) has taken the automotive world by storm over the past few years. It’s a sector that hasn’t seen many new competitors in recent years. Tesla has brought a renewed spirit of innovation to the car industry, and TSLA stock has rewarded its owners richly.

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However in recent months, Tesla shares have fallen sharply. TSLA stock peaked at $286 a share last year; since then it has dropped as much as 50%. It’s rebounded a bit in recent weeks, but the current Tesla stock price is still quite low compared to recent levels. Are shares now a good buy?

TSLA Stock Pros

Fantastic Product: The bull case for TSLA stock starts at its core product: fantastic cars. The company has won a jaw-dropping number of awards for the Model S in its short history. It has earned a spot Time magazine’s best innovations of 2012 list. 2013 brought it the first ever unanimous Car of the Year award from Motor TrendConsumer Reports also ranked it as the best car ever tested.

In 2014, Consumer Reports said the Model S was readers’ most loved car. Top Gear ranked it the as most important car ever tested. The Telegraph claimed the Model S was the best car of the past 20 years. Even the most bitter Tesla critic would struggle to argue that Tesla hasn’t designed one of the best cars in recent history.

Autopilot: Tesla’s Autopilot, launched last October, is a thrilling idea. For the first time, drivers are offered the ability to not have to actively drive. Instead, Tesla’s vehicle drives itself, with the human serving merely as a backup. Musk has said that the autopilot is “probably” more skilled than a human driver.

Cool features such as Summon allow the vehicle to move up to forty feet without a driver. For example, the vehicle can back up out of the garage without human assistance. Those sorts of perks are really cool and could help power sales.

Self-driving isn’t that helpful yet. The car still struggles in conditions such as snow, and the human driver must always remain alert. The car will occasionally require the human to take over immediately if it is confused by a situation. But Autopilot it’s a building block for a much better product in the future, and TSLA has a huge lead on the competition.

Sales Momentum Is Building: Tesla remains significantly unprofitable. Much of this is due to lack of scale; it simply doesn’t manufacture that many cars. Fixed costs are high, requiring more sales volume to make the financial model work.

And thankfully, sales are really kicking into high gear now. For full-year 2015, Tesla delivered 50,580 cars. This was up big from 2014, when the company moved 33,157 units. With 52% growth year over year, clearly the “everyone who already wants one has one” line of criticism has been invalidated.

2016 appears likely to continue the rising sales trend. The Model X only made up 208 deliveries in the last quarter of 2015, but will undoubtedly sell far more in the coming year. For all models combined, TSLA has guided to 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles for the year. This would be an additional 60-80% gain on top of 2015’s growth.

TSLA Stock Cons

Elon Musk May Be Overextended: Elon Musk is a storied entrepreneur. He has been involved in numerous revolutionary tech companies. He currently plays key roles at not just Tesla but also SolarCity (SCTY) and Space-X. While it is great for human innovation as a whole to have him playing so many roles, it may pose specific risks to TSLA stock.

One is dilution of focus. Even granting that Mr. Musk has unnaturally high levels of energy, it still must be difficult to play pivotal roles with three different companies, all of which are involved in very different businesses.

A more direct concern is that Musk may be running short on funds to support his empire. Reuters reported in November that Musk had put up 7.4 million shares of TSLA stock as collateral for a loan. At the time, that was worth $1.6 billion. At today’s valuation, that loan now has roughly $300 million less in collateral, as TSLA stock has fallen. Should shares continue dropping, the lenders may force Musk to sell TSLA shares.

Tesla Remains Significantly Unprofitable: In Tesla’s most recent quarter, TSLA stock lost 87 cents per share. This was well below expectations. Revenues also came in lower than expected. Tesla put a positive spin on the situation, saying that they are cash flow positive.

However, this is due to Tesla creating a new accounting concept of “core operational cash flow”. This figure includes cash Tesla receives from lenders for finished cars that haven’t yet been sold to an end customer. It’s essentially a spin on factoring.

There’s nothing wrong with this approach, but it does speak to how strapped Tesla is for cash. On the standard Free Cash Flow basis of accounting, Tesla continues to lose more than $1 billion per year. The company is investing for the future, so losses are to be expected. But as markets sour, it may become increasingly difficult for the company to fund its ambitious plans.

Mass Market Is A Different Business: Tesla’s Model 3 is aimed at the mass market car buyer instead of the luxury consumer. History is fraught with examples of high-end car makers who went astray as they launched cheaper models.

TSLA has built its business through word of mouth and by winning awards. Competing with the major auto makers on their turf is a different ballgame. Tesla has been able to avoid advertising so far, but it will almost certainly have to spend heavily on marketing to support the Model 3.

Tesla Stock: Verdict

This isn’t a stock I would be comfortable buying. If you like the story, now is a much better time to buy than in 2015. Still, there are substantial financial risks.

If Tesla is unable to secure large supplies of new funding on favorable terms, the growth story at the company is likely to go off track. If you’re interested in innovative automotive technology, consider buying the companies that make the chips that power the next-generation electronics. Texas Instruments (TXN), for example, comes to mind.

At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek owned shares of Texas Instruments and had no position in Tesla shares. He can be reached on Twitter at @irbezek.

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2016/02/should-i-buy-sell-tesla-tsla-stock-pros-cons/.

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