Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Sentenced to Purgatory After Q1 Earnings

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The first-quarter earnings report from Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) had the opportunity to provide an interesting peek into the market’s sentiment toward NFLX stock, and we got it. But it wasn’t at all what investors might expect.

Netflix, Inc. Q1 Earnings Beat Is a Purgatory Sentence (NFLX)

First-quarter profits beat the consensus, with earnings of 40 cents per share topping estimates by 3 cents. However, subscriber growth disappointed relative to even Netflix’s seemingly cautious guidance. Q2 guidance came in above expectations, though, which fits the narrative coming from Netflix itself.

Guidance given in January after Netflix’s Q4 results set the table for a slightly different view. The company projected lower subscriber growth in Q1, due to a tough comparison (including Netflix’s global launch the year before) and a back-loaded content slate.

But Netflix also guided for improved subscriber growth over the rest of the year, thanks to a stronger content slate. And it forecast a sharp jump in operating margins to about 9% for Q1, and 7% for the full year as some of those content and marketing costs kicked in.

In other words, Netflix seemed to set up 2017 as the first step in Netflix stock moving away from being a pure growth play — one in which investor attention focused solely on subscriber numbers. Bears on NFLX stock often have derided the fact that Netflix earnings “don’t matter.” Yet the company itself seems intent on countering that narrative, including an aim detailed in the Q4 shareholder letter to “balance growth and profitability.”

From that standpoint, the Q1 Netflix earnings report seems likely to do little to settle the argument between the bears and the bulls.

Netflix Earnings Were Good Enough

Netflix stock is down modestly in after-hours trading, but I’d expect a reversal. There’s enough in the Q1 report to keep NFLX stock elevated — at least for now.

In its first-quarter shareholder letter, Netflix doubled down on its 2017 narrative, telling readers that “starting this year, we can be primarily measured by revenue growth and (global) operating margins as our primary metrics.” Perhaps not coincidentally, Netflix earnings look strong on both fronts.

Revenue increased 34.7% year-over-year in Q1, pretty much matching Street estimates. Guidance for a 31% jump in Q2 appears ahead of expectations as well. Subscriber growth did narrowly miss guidance. But Netflix is projecting 3.2 million net additions in Q2 — nearly double the year-prior total. The argument heading into the quarter — that better content would drive more growth after Q1 — seems to hold.

Meanwhile, operating margin for Q1 came in at a handsome 9.7%. There, too, Netflix is sticking to its story, with Q2 EBIT margin guided down to 4.4%, with much of the difference coming from the shift of the new season of House of Cards into Q2.

Netflix Inc (NFLX) stock chart view 1

Netflix stock neared an all-time high heading into the report, and is down a bit under 2% in early after-hours trading. There could be some weakness in NFLX stock on Tuesday, if only because of what a 3%+ gain on Monday priced in.

That said, Netflix bears expecting a post-earnings collapse should be disappointed.

Netflix Stock Might Not Be Good Enough

At the same time, it’s hard to argue that Q1 was a blowout quarter, particularly in terms of growth. Cash flow remains a concern. Netflix earnings were positive, but free cash flow was negative $423 million. The company guided post-Q1 for cash burn of roughly $2 billion in 2017.

Competition is an issue too — one Netflix addressed directly in its shareholder letter. It said following Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) into live sports was not a “strategy that we think is smart for us.” (Amazon inked a deal to air Thursday night football last week.) Netflix wrote that so-called VMVPDs like Sling TV, Hulu and Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) YouTube weren’t a competitive threat, as Netflix is a “largely complementary” service.

In other words, it’s Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR) that should be worried, not NFLX stock holders.

Many bears would disagree, however, and would point to the cash burn as what is required from Netflix simply to maintain slowly moderating subscriber growth. Although  Q1 fits Netflix’s narrative, it’s not going to dissuade those bears.

With Netflix stock just off an all-time high set last month, and NFLX shares now valued at over $60 billion, anything less than a blowout likely is priced in.

Where NFLX Stock Goes From Here

All told, Q1 seems likely to extend the bull/bear argument over Netflix, not solve it.

Bulls can point to growth and margin expansion; bears can highlight cash burn and valuation. Coming out of Q1, both sides are right, at least in part. And that means the argument over NFLX stock moves onto the Q2 report, just three short months away.

As of this writing, Vince Martin did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

After spending time at a retail brokerage, Vince Martin has covered the financial industry for close to a decade for InvestorPlace.com and other outlets.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/04/netflix-inc-nflx-stock-sentenced-to-purgatory-after-q1-earnings/.

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