Why First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Shouldn’t Be Left for Dead

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To say that First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) is going through some dark clouds right now would be putting it mildly. It’s a virtual torrent, a hurricane, a typho … well, you get the picture. Times are tough at the solar power manufacturer. And the pain isn’t all self-inflicted. FSLR stock has suffered at the hands of an old foe: cheap Chinese imports and a glut of panels.

Why First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Shouldn't Be Left for Dead

That’s causing some headaches and a major shakeup with its business model.

And that won’t be too pretty when it First Solar reports earnings after the close today. In the end, First Solar will report some dark and stormy numbers. But that just might be a perfect opportunity for investors looking past the current weekly forecast.

A Big Drop at First Solar

FSLR’s problems started a few quarters ago. After being a bright spot during 2015, last year was abysmal. Shares of First Solar stock ended up as one of the worst performers out of the entire market. After a glut of cheap solar panels had taken hold, prices for panels fell hard. In fact, prices for solar panels dropped by more than 30% over the course of the year.

It simply became more affordable for end-users to load up these cheaper, less efficient panels than FSLR’s more advanced ones. You could get more wattage power for less money even though you’d need twice as many panels. Even worse was utilities — First Solar’s primary clients — were able to move into the business of building out solar farms themselves rather than buy power from the company and its YieldCo 8Point3 Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ:CAFD).

As a result, the company saw revenue and profit decline throughout the year continuously. And those numbers have come to ahead for the first quarter of the new year.

See, FSLR is starting to shift its business model towards being a full solar supplier. This means not only becoming a high margined services company — through planning, grid interconnections and permitting — but also as a complete components supplier. That will include selling racking systems, wires and its panels to a utility. An essential part of that is its new high efficient and cheap Panel Six designs as well as ending its relationship with CAFD. It won’t build-out plants and sell them, but rather supply all the goods and expertise needed for someone else to make them.

This is all good news for FSLR stock over the longer run. In the short-term, it’s going to stink.

This quarter, First Solar is expected to report a loss of 13 cents per share. Last year at this time, the solar producer reported a $1.66 profit on the back of a few major project sales and higher bookings. What’s worst is that this will be the first loss for the firm in several quarters. FSLR’s backlog should show weakness as the firm shifts, while higher CAPEX spending costs to push its new panel designs forward should crimp cash flows and margins.

In the end, it’s not going to be a lovely quarter or year for that matter. At the end of last quarter, First Solar estimated that it would see lower revenues and panel shipments during all of 2017. Moreover, it didn’t give any profit estimates for the entire year.

A Shining Opportunity for FSLR stock

And while First Solar has gotten a few upgrades in the last week or so, none of them were resounding “buy every share you can” kind of announcements. FSLR stock should tank even if it reports better than expected losses or even a small profit. Any drop could be exactly what solar bulls have been waiting for.

If any solar firm can make this sort of transition, it’s First Solar. It’s undoubtedly the sector leader and has the goods, i.e., a ton of cash on its balance sheet, to make it through until it starts seeing real orders for its new products. It’s just going to take some time and this quarter is going to be step one in the process.

In the end, the roll-out of its newer cheaper panels will only help push more power producers into the company’s hands. The charges due to the transition will hurt today, but for longer-term investors it will be the saving grace at FSLR.

The Bottom Line: Earnings-per-share at First Solar are going to be dark today, and its mid-term outlook isn’t going to be great either. Panel sales and backlog growth should be lower as series four panel sales end, and major solar farm projects die off. However, that shouldn’t come as a shock as FSLR transitions to being an all-in-one supplier. Investors should use the weakness to snag shares for the long-term.

As of this writing, Aaron Levitt did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Aaron Levitt is an investment journalist living in Ohio. With nearly two decades of experience, his work appears in several high-profile publications in both print and on the web. Also likes a good Reuben sandwich. Follow his picks and pans on Twitter at @AaronLevitt.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/05/first-solar-inc-fslr-stock-shouldnt-be-left-dead/.

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