The cheers for $1,000 are on. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) climbed into four digits on Monday, capping a few days of flirtation with the psychological mark. the level. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) won the race by reaching four figures last week, but it’s hard to imagine that people long GOOGL stock are complaining right now.
Alphabet is up fractionally today, but that’s enough to put shares at about $1,004 at the moment. But how much does the thousand-dollar mark matter, and does reaching a big-number level like this actually have significant sway over whether investors should consider Alphabet a buy going forward?
Fundamentally Speaking on Alphabet
Alphabet’s Google division is the king of online search and is the top-ranked website in the world. Its YouTube enterprise is the second most visited site, as ranked by Alexa.
GOOGL also has more developing businesses such as Waymo, its self-driving car division. Recent analyst estimates have said that unit could be worth $70 billion; more than 10% of Alphabet’s current $690 billion market capitalization. Others have suggested that Google Lens could be the thing to propel the stock to new heights.
The point? Alphabet has successfully positioned itself in some of today’s most important markets. Now, it’s working on positioning itself to lead in tomorrow’s biggest markets.
But a great business does not necessarily equate to a great stock.
While we’re not in the midst of a dot-com boom and bust, and while GOOGL stock is built on much more than the speculation that drove most of the tech bubble, consider that it took Amazon 10 years to reclaim its highs from 1999. We don’t want to be disappointed top buyers.
While Alphabet is fundamentally sound in almost all areas, it’s worth pointing out one hang-up.
Analyst expect 19.4% earnings growth in 2018 and 18.8% annual growth for the next five years. Additionally, analysts expect sales to climb 19.4% this year and 16.2% in 2018. All of these are great, with the exception of 2017. Analysts expect earnings to fall about 1% this year. And that could spark a little short-term weakness, especially if investors fear that GOOGL stock has gotten ahead of itself.
The Technical Picture
“With a consistent core business in Google and potential upsides in businesses like Waymo, GOOGL stock is attractive. With its dependable growth and a reasonable valuation, it’s even better. At just a hair under all-time highs, though, now may not be the best time to buy. A retest of its 50-day moving average near $840 and a further decline to its 200-day moving average near $800 would offer better entry opportunities.”
Ultimately, we got the 50-day retest, but not the 200-day. Since then, though, shares are up more than 20%.
The problem on the chart right now is a still-overbought reading according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) up top. Yes, GOOGL stock has proven that it can make significant gains while in overbought status, but this kind of condition never lasts forever, and more often than not resolves itself with a long period of flat trading … or a big dip.
In other words, it’s hard to see Alphabet paying off, at least on any short-term bullish trades.
Bottom Line on GOOGL Stock
I hate to be Johnny Raincloud here, but without a pullback, it’s hard to be a new buyer at these levels. Short-term traders can try buying Alphabet on a pullback toward $960, near the 21-day moving average. They can also try selling into the $1,000 hype.
However, if either trend moves quickly against you, it’s likely best to get out.
Long-term investors similarly have missed the boat for now. Like our suggestion with Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), if you do want to buy Alphabet for the long-term, you certainly can right now, but you’re much better off waiting for a sizable pullback where valuation looks at least somewhat more reasonable.
Most ideal would be a pullback somewhere between $840 (200-day moving average) and $900 (previously resistance).
Alphabet is a quality company that is too dominant in its space to suddenly fall apart fundamentally. Even a massive crash in shares is likely to be a result of a broader market selloff, not changing sentiment.
GOOGL stock is just too expensive and too hopped-up right now.