eBay Inc (EBAY) Stock Is Due for Some Weakness Ahead

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eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) investors have been big winners this year. Year to date, EBAY stock is up more than 23%, while the S&P 500 is up just 10%. Investors have rallied behind the idea that EBAY is a turnaround story. Once the laughing stock of internet commerce, EBAY is now modernizing its platform and turning itself into a legitimate Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) competitor.

eBay Inc (EBAY) Stock Is Due for Some Weakness Ahead

But, EBAY stock fell yesterday after reporting mixed Q2 numbers. Revenue beat by $20 million and earnings were in line with expectations. The Q3 and full-year guides were good and largely met expectations.

But, that isn’t exciting. When a stock is up 20% year to date, it needs exciting results to propel it higher. In-line results and guidance don’t cut it. Thats why EBAY stock was down about 3% yesterday. Is there more weakness ahead?

I think so. Here’s why.

EBAY Isn’t a Turnaround, Just a Steady Growth Story

eBay Inc really isn’t the turnaround story bulls think it is. Turnaround stories feature accelerating growth rates or improving operational results, but that really isn’t the case with EBAY stock.

Look at the numbers. GMV growth has flatlined at around 5%; it isn’t getting better or worse, it’s just staying consistent at 5% every quarter. Revenue growth, meanwhile, has also flatlined at around 6%-8%. Plus, EBAY is adding roughly 2 million active buyers per quarter, which is 3%-4% year-over-year growth. Again, this is a trend that has persisted for multiple quarters.

When you look at the numbers, then, it becomes obvious that EBAY stock is just a steady, low-growth story. Investors can expect 2 million new active buyers every quarter, 5% GMV growth, and 7% constant currency revenue growth.

Those numbers won’t head higher. If anything, they could head lower for EBAY.

StubHub didn’t have a great quarter. Yes, growth will be cyclical due to variations in the underlying event landscape. Nonetheless, the platform looks like it has reached growth saturation. Early last year, GMV growth on StubHub was around 30%. Then it fell to 5% in Q4 and stayed at just 6% in Q1.

This most recent quarter, StubHub GMV actually fell 5%. The sharp reversal in growth is due to more than just seasonality in the event landscape. The platform is getting maxed out.

Classifieds growth is also slowing. Mid-to-high teens revenue growth in the first half of last year has turned into low double-digit revenue growth in the first half of this year. There really isn’t a foreseeable inflection point for growth in this business. As such, its likely these growth rates continue to come down for EBAY.

Overall, investors need to stop treating EBAY as a turnaround story.

What About The Valuation on EBAY Stock?

Put simply: EBAY stock is too richly valued, considering its lack of growth.

While top-line growth is steady, EBAY isn’t doing all that much to grow margins. Gross margins are getting sliced as the cost of revenue rises, due in part to foreign exchange headwinds. Those headwinds are not showing any signs of reversing, so EBAY’s gross margins will likely remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Operating expenses are about flat year over year. The sales and marketing expense rate is down, as EBAY has implemented more efficient brand advertising methods. The product development expense rate is about flat, as expense leverage is being offset by increased investments into the EBAY platform. The general and administrative expense rate is up, as eBay Inc continues to invest in data and security.

All in all, a flat opex rate is what investors should expect over the next several quarters. EBAY will continue to gain efficiency in brand advertising, but the company must also continue investing in its platform to drive growth in a hyper-competitive marketplace. As the number of financially disruptive cyber attacks grows, EBAY must also continue investing heavily in security. Those increases should be offset by leveraging in product development expenses.

Bottom Line on EBAY stock

So, EBAY investors are looking at a company with consistent mid-single-digit revenue growth potential. Gross margins could improve a bit as some one-time costs are phased out, but the opex rate should remain relatively flat. Overall, mid-single-digit revenue growth should lead to high-single-digit earnings growth.

But, EBAY stock is trading at 16.4-times FY18 earnings-per-share estimates.

That’s a rich multiple for annualized earnings growth of 7%-8%. It also doesn’t help that EBAY stock is up more than 20% year to date, or that the balance sheet features more debt than cash.

EBAY stock needs to pull back here, as investors rethink how much of a turnaround story the company actually is.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/07/ebay-inc-ebay-stock-due-for-some-weakness-ahead/.

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