3 Things to Know About Walt Disney Co Stock Before Tuesday’s Close

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DIS stock - 3 Things to Know About Walt Disney Co Stock Before Tuesday’s Close

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It would have been easy to forget Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) has an earnings release scheduled for its new future. So, if you own or are following DIS stock, mark your calendar; Disney will be divulging its fiscal first quarter results on Tuesday, Feb, 6. after the closing bell rings.

Between its intent to acquire most of Twenty-First Century Fox Inc (NASDAQ:FOXA) and speculation about whether or not its planned streaming service could be trouble for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), it should be an interesting call.

As the past several have been for the entertainment giant, this one is going to be well-watched. Though DIS stock remains one of the most powerful brands in its three core arenas (film, TV and resorts), all three have faced headwinds that haven’t likely let up.

To that end, here are the top three items to watch closely on Tuesday, as they’ll likely be the big drivers of how the market responds to the Q1 report.

DIS Stock Earnings Preview

For the quarter ending in December, analysts collectively expect the company to earn $1.61 per share on revenue of $15.5 billion. Walt Disney drove $14.8 billion worth of revenue in the comparable quarter a year earlier, turning a profit of $1.55 per share of DIS stock.

An earnings beat is statistically more likely than a miss, though that’s not exactly a bet anyone would want to make this time around. DIS stock fell well short of fiscal Q4’s expectations, and its big problems didn’t seem to abate during the final quarter of 2017. In fact….

3 Big Things to Watch

As a refresher, Disney reports relatively (though not exhaustively) detailed looks at its divisions — Media Networks (television), Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment (movies) and the relatively minor Consumer Products and Interactive Media (games and retail stores).

It does not break down those numbers any further, meaning we don’t know precisely how well its ABC arm did compared to its ESPN division, nor do we know how each individual movie contributes to the top and bottom line.

There are some well-established assumptions to that end though, like the idea that ESPN has historically been the breadwinner of its television business.

It’s also worth mentioning that the 2012 acquisition of LucasFilm has made Star Wars its most important movie franchise (though its Marvel deal is pretty important too).

That said, it’s not terribly difficult to connect its divisional successes or failures with specific brands and businesses. Here are three things to think about before and after Walt Disney reports its first quarter numbers.

Studio Entertainment: In many regards it’s an unfair comparison to the final calendar quarter of 2016. A year earlier, Rogue One, the first Star Wars film to not feature a character not named Skywalker, boasted a box office of nearly $900 million.

That release was supported by animated sequel Finding Dory. Doctor Strange was released in November of 2016 as well, and did surprisingly well considering it was based on a less-than-mainstream character.

Yet, The Last Jedi rekindled the saga of the Skywalker family, ultimately adding $1.3 billion worth of box office revenue to the company’s coffers, while Thor: Ragnarok got close to the $1 billion mark following its November release.

In other words, its movie division may have done pretty well last quarter.

Media Networks: You’ll have to read between the lines to figure out exactly which channels helped or hurt last quarter, but in that ESPN is its flagship, it could make or break Disney’s television arm.

And it’s not looking all that promising. Interest in professional sports has been waning. Just when it looked like baseball’s viewership was on the mend we learn last year’s World Series attracted a notably smaller crowd than 2016’s championship games.

Meanwhile, the controversy stemming from some NFL players kneeling or sitting during the national anthem turned some people off from professional football altogether. The NFL’s television ratings fell nearly 10% in 2017.

Parks and Resorts: It’s most difficult to get a read on how the company’s parks and hotels are doing in any given quarter. Walt Disney offers no traffic data, so it’s touch to see the affect on DIS stock.

All the same, after a disappointing 2016, some observers believe parks improved their business despite higher entry prices.

Underscoring this idea is the recent decision to sell exclusive access to more FastPass rights, reserving a slot at attractions at a certain time for $50 a pop. Some displaced guests are obviously grumbling, but the fact that Disney was confident enough to do it speaks volumes about traffic.

Looking Ahead for DIS Stock

While Walt Disney clearly has some things working in its favor, current and potential DIS stock holders must be concerned that its biggest money-maker, television, is also its biggest headache. Television drove 42% of last fiscal year’s revenue, but its profit contribution is sinking fast.

Last year’s net income for Media Networks fell 11% on only a 1% dip in revenue, as the company struggled to find the balance between the licensing fees it charges and the advertising revenue it collected.

That’s largely on ESPN’s woes, but in a bigger sense it’s a reflection of changing consumer preferences. There are a multitude of diversions that steer people away from television altogether now. “Experiences” are the new red-hot product.

That’s not to say DIS stock can’t survive without a strong television presence. It is to caution, however, that it can’t thrive without doing television better in the future. It remains to be seen just how well it can reinvigorate its TV fare, and whether or not bringing Fox into the mix will help.

You can bet there will be plenty of questions on that matter during Tuesday’s conference call. Be sure to listen carefully to those answers.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/02/dis-stock-tuesdays-close/.

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