Are cryptocurrencies beneficial to the bull case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)? It depends who you ask. For the record, not even the professional Nvidia stock analysts can decide.

Now the question is being asked from a different direction. That is, will cheaper/better competition on the crypto-mining technology front prove problematic for NVDA?

Analysts are split on that matter, but an aggregated look at what everybody is saying regarding the introduction of Bitmain Technology’s ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) processor built from the ground up specifically to mine cryptocurrencies just might make sense of the debate.

Spoiler alert: Cryptos just aren’t that big of a deal to Nvidia stock, or rival AMD for that matter.

The “Look Out Below” Case for Nvidia Stock

Just in case anyone’s wondering how and why Nvidia and AMD have become so tightly wound in the cryptocurrency mania, it’s relatively simple. Digital currencies are not so much created as they are found by discovering a limited number of codes — a character string — that qualify them as a legitimate token. For instance, there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. Most have been found.

Though any computer can theoretically calculate, or find (mine) a bitcoin, using graphics processing cards (or GPUs) rather than relying on the computer’s processor (or CPU) has proven a better choice for crypto miners. Though GPUs can’t do terribly complex math, they can handle a massive number of simultaneous calculations, meaning they can find or uncover bitcoins at a better/faster pace.

New ASIC processors, however, can do so even better, and cheaper, and that gives RBC Capital’s Mitch Steves cause for concern. He explains “This [the new processor from Bitmain] is the first specific chip designed for Ethereum [another kind of cryptocurrency] mining and has a hashrate of 180 MH/s with a power usage of 800W (total cost of $800). This will materially impact the cryptocurrency market in our view (AMD/Nvidia serve this segment) as the product is notably more powerful than current GPUs. Specifically, at $800 per card, the E3 is roughly 2.5x more powerful than building a GPU based mining rig with GPU products.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore further fleshed out the idea, saying “The superior economics [of Bitmain’s ASIC processor] is likely to drive down mining profits for graphics chips (which were already under pressure), and likely signal the end of the crypto graphics shortage by mid-year, a tactical negative for AMD (and to a lesser extent NVDA), though both companies have other areas growing quickly.”

And with most cryptocurrencies now in a relentless freefall, the economics of using GPUs to look for digital currencies worsens each and every day.

What if, however, crypto mining was never really a big deal to AMD and Nvidia anyway.

The “Meh” Crowd Says …

That’s the argument being made by Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse anyway. He opined as we has reiterating the firm’s “Outperform” rating on Nvidia stock “Our sense is that Crypto is ~5% of overall revenues and with a new Gaming GPU (called “Turing”) launch cycle ramping in 2HCY18, we believe NVDA will likely power through any tough compares from Crypto-driven tailwinds (though exact numbers are difficult to know for sure in Crypto).”

Not that any company wouldn’t notice the sudden vanishing of 5% of its revenue-bearing market, but most companies would be able to shrug off the loss of that business. That’s especially true of graphics cards makers, who have struggled to meet the full demand from video gamers over the course of the past several months; they were all being bought up by cryptocurrency miners.

It’s worth noting that even the graphics processor card makers themselves have directly (or in the case of Nvidia, not quite as directly) made it clear that cryptocurrencies aren’t a game-changer.

A statement from AMD on the matter reiterated Muse’s estimate, saying “Revenue associated with Blockchain was approximately mid-single-digit percentage of revenue for AMD in 2017. We believe that GPUs will continue to provide value to blockchain applications for the foreseeable future. However, the largest long-term growth drivers for AMD are across our datacenter, PC, and gaming businesses and our Q1-2018 and full year 2018 guidance reflects that.”

Nvidia doesn’t deliberately offer a ton of details on where its revenue comes from, but some careful number-crunching using the limited details it did provide during a couple of last year’s conference calls reveals crypto-driven demand for its GPUs is well below 10% of its total revenue.

Bottom Line for Nvidia Stock

To say the advent of these ASIC chips — which again, are custom-built to perform one function — is irrelevant to Nvidia or Advanced Micro Devices would be disingenuous. It matters. Just not for the reason you might think. The real worry to current and prospective owners of AMD and Nvidia stock is the potential development of ASIC chips that can handle the artificial intelligence work also currently being done by GPUs. Ditto for data centers.

The use of ASIC technology to handle these things is pretty far down the road though, if it’s down the road at all. And, it’s unlikely an ASIC chip would ever be able to handle the load put on conventional GPUs that gamers put on them.

In other words, while Bitmain’s development may shake up the cryptocurrency landscape, it’s not a tremendous threat to Advanced Micro Devices or Nvidia. Indeed, their biggest threats right now continue to be each other.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.