Flipkart May Be Key to Saving Struggling Walmart Inc Stock

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Walmart stock - Flipkart May Be Key to Saving Struggling Walmart Inc Stock

E-commerce in India is about to change forever. Global retail giant Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) is reportedly only weeks away from acquiring up to 80% of India’s leading e-commerce platform, Flipkart, for $12 billion, according to Bloomberg.

This is a big deal. On multiple fronts. Not only will e-commerce in India now be under majority ownership of U.S. companies (the second leading e-commerce platform in India is Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), but Flipkart could also give WMT the shot in the arm it so desperately needs.

Walmart stock has struggled recently, falling from above $110 to $85 in a matter of months amid what investors are perceiving as slowing digital sales growth and increased competition from Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT). There isn’t much Walmart can do about Target fighting back. But there is a lot Walmart can do about its slowing digital sales growth rate.

And the biggest thing it can do is inject itself head-first into the hottest e-commerce market in the world.

As such, a Flipkart acquisition could save Walmart stock long term. But not in the near term.

Here’s a deeper look:

Walmart Stock’s Big Growth Opportunity

For all intents and purposes, Flipkart is India’s version of Amazon. And, for all intents and purposes, India is the next big frontier in e-commerce. Put those two together, and it is easy to see why Flipkart offers a tremendous growth opportunity for WMT.

Just as China’s e-commerce market started to surge higher a few years back and continues to surge higher today, India appears to be in the early innings of its own e-commerce revolution. Because India has just as many people as China, the boom could be just as big. That is why India’s e-commerce market is expected to grow at a 30% compounded annual growth rate over the next 10 years to $200 billion.

Currently, Flipkart owns roughly 50-70% of the India e-commerce market, depending on who you ask. By comparison, Amazon owns roughly 50% of the U.S. e-commerce market.

Thus, if Flipkart captures Amazon-like market share of the India e-commerce market in 10 years (50%), that would imply gross merchandise value of $100 billion. That is a huge number, even for Walmart ($500 billion in annual sales).

More importantly, a Flipkart acquisition solves Walmart’s biggest problem — slowing digital sales growth. Investors freaked out because Walmart reported a huge step down in digital sales growth last quarter. One way for WMT to re-ignite digital sales growth is to jump head-first into the India e-commerce market.

Walmart Stock Upside Won’t Be Realized Immediately

Currently, however, there is a significant lack of clarity when it comes to Flipkart’s size, growth and market share. Due to this lack of clarity, investors won’t be snapping up Walmart stock after the company acquires 80% of Flipkart.

Moreover, the Target headwind remains, and Walmart continues to lose momentum in the domestic market. Meawhile, WMT stock continues to trade at a historically rich valuation.

All together, near-term weakness in Walmart stock will persist. I’m not a buyer here.

Longer-term, though, a Flipkart acquisition will save the day for Walmart stock. Flipkart gives Walmart huge exposure to the hottest e-commerce market in the world, thereby significantly strengthening the company’s overall growth profile and lengthening its growth runway by several years. Once clarity emerges regarding Flipkart’s size, growth and market share, investor demand for Walmart stock will surge higher.

Bottom Line on Walmart Stock

I’ve been bearish on Walmart stock for a while, as it sprinted way ahead of fundamentals on the idea that this company was transforming into a global digital retail behemoth on par with Amazon.

That never happened. Walmart stock dropped. But one way for WMT to actually transform into a global digital retail behemoth is to acquire Flipkart.

As such, a major Flipkart investment could save the day for Walmart stock. But the saving won’t happen over night. Near-term, Walmart stock will continue to be weighed by an over-extended valuation and depressed sentiment. Longer-term, robust international e-retail growth could send the stock higher.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN and TGT. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/flipkart-may-save-struggling-walmart-inc-wmt-stock/.

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