Don’t Let More Bad News Scare You Out Of Facebook, Inc. Stock

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The hits just keep coming for Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB). While we’ve already absorbed the impact of the initial Cambridge Analytica news, FB stock remains under fire. More recently, we heard that the data breach impacted many more users than initially reported. The company deleted Mark Zuckerburg’s private messages, which raises eyebrows. Sheryl Sandberg disclosed in an interview that some advertisers have put the company on pause to see what happens with the scandal.

All this sounds like terrible news. And yet, FB stock appears to have bottomed at $150/share, and is holding up relatively well in the wake of Friday’s punishing market sell-off. What’s going on here? Why aren’t bulls (such as myself) throwing in the towel on Facebook stock now?

Is Facebook Still Growing?

I started buying FB stock in the low $160s and received a variety of criticism from commentators. While there are several arguments that come up repeatedly, one reigns supreme: “Sure, Facebook grew quickly in the past, but what happens to the stock price after they stop growing?”

This would be an important question if we were talking about the same thing, but in many cases, we aren’t. Facebook has been growing its monthly average users by about 10%/year recently. It’s already seen growth pretty much disappear in some developed markets and also in the 18-and-under crowd. Facebook fatigue/saturation has been a known risk factor for FB stock for quite a while now.

But Facebook’s platform stalling out (at nearly one in every three people on the planet, mind you) is hardly a disaster. While Facebook has been growing its MAUs at about 10%, it has grown revenues at a 40%+ rate over the past five years, compounded. It did 45% growth over the past 12 months — at least until the scandals really started hitting.

Monetization, Not User Count, Matters

Given the massive wave of negative publicity, a realistic investor must now assume that Facebook will not gain any more net users. But would that shut off the earnings growth spigot?

The answer is a definitive no. That’s because Facebook has a key lever: pricing power. As one of only two meaningful online digital advertising ecosystems, it has great leverage in setting ad rates. And it is has been using it in recent quarters.

Remember several years ago that Facebook was hit with scandals involving fake users and click farms? Advertisers alleged that Facebook was selling a lot of advertising space to “users” who didn’t really exist. In particular, advertisers alleged that many of their paid-for views were coming from seemingly fake profiles in third-world countries. The BBC’s Virtual Bagel experiment is a good demonstration of what was happening.

Anyways, Facebook cracked down on bot farms and fake users. The platform’s credibility grew over time, and advertisers became increasingly pleased with their results, as Facebook made strides to reinforce the integrity of the site. That, along with an impressive vision in mobile, set the stage for Facebook’s explosive revenue and earnings growth.

This cleaning up of the user base has allowed Facebook’s revenue growth to far outpace its user growth. As advertisers have found increasing efficacy on their promotions, they are willing to pay more to Facebook in the future for each ad impression. Facebook has enjoyed a nice incline in its rate per ad and also its revenue per active user. This gives it room for error even if user growth slows or stops for the time being. It also serves as a reminder that Facebook has overcome troubling roadblocks in the past.

User Exodus: Probably Not So Bad

Above, I suggested that a realistic investor must now model Facebook as a no-growth platform. Given the potential for more bits of scandalous information coming out, it’s best to be cautious.

However, initial data seems to indicate that Facebook isn’t actually losing all that many users. One observer looked at Google Trends data for the search term “Delete Facebook”. Interest had been hovering around 25 prior to the Cambridge Analytica story. It spiked immediately to 100 (indicating highest ever search volume for that query). However, search volume is already back below 50 (less than twice normal) and is continuing to trend lower.

Similarly, the data research firm LikeFolio tracks the number of users indicating that they wish to quit Facebook each day. In the immediate wake of the scandal, indicated quits jumped 10x, peaking March 21. However, by the end of March, indicated quits had dropped back to less than 2x pre-scandal volumes. So, while the broader impact of the Cambridge Analytica event remains to be seen, so far, the signs point toward momentary user drop-off, not mass exodus.

FB Stock Verdict

When I last wrote about FB stock, I was starting to warm up to the company around $165/share. Now, down under $160, the appeal for FB stock has only gotten stronger.

I know the headlines are awful. It feels like this political attack on the company is never going to end. And truthfully, Facebook’s management deserves a good chunk of the blame for getting into this situation in the first place. They need to make changes, and quickly, to keep up the trust of both users and advertisers.

But at the end of the day, there’s really only two major options for advertisers. They need to go where the eyeballs are, and that’s either Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) or Facebook. Make no mistake, it’s unlikely that the likes of a Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) will be able to take advantage — it sells users’ data too, after all. Facebook is still able to drive up advertising rates because it is able to generate sales. At the end of the day, that, not political drama, is what is going to move Facebook stock. Expect a lot more volatility, but eventually, Facebook stock moves higher again.

At the time of this writing, the author owned FB stock and had no positions in any of the other aforementioned securities. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.

Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/more-bad-news-scare-you-fb-stock/.

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