Is Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and Ford stock jinxed?

Although investors barely blinked on the recent news out of Detroit that Ford shut down two F-150 assembly plants because of a parts shortage due to a fire at a supplier’s plant, it sure does make you wonder.

Every time Ford stock gets up a head of steam — it gained 25% between the end of August and made a 52-week high of $13.58 in mid-January, only to give it all back by early February — something seems to come along to knock it off stride.

In January, Ford announced a disappointing earnings forecast for 2018, while also missing analyst estimates on its 2017 numbers. Down went Ford stock.

Just two weeks ago, Ford announced first quarter earnings that were better than expected with revenues coming in at $42.0 billion, $4.8 billion higher than analyst estimates for the quarter. Earnings were $0.43, two cents higher than its estimate.

Good right? Ford stock barely budged.

Investors are worried that it’s not doing enough to improve its finances, and quite possibly attempting to do too much at one time.

“It is positive they are taking the steps to communicate the details of the direction they are taking,” Edward Jones analyst Jeff Windau said. “But it is going to be challenging. They are going to be making cost reductions as they are developing these new platforms and new technologies. They are trying to move some pretty big rocks all at the same time.”

Clearly, a shutdown of its F-150 assembly lines is not part of its overall plan to be more competitive. While the company says the shutdown is not going to be an issue, it’s hard not to consider the ramifications of a severe interruption.

It’s one thing if the Ford Focus has a shutdown, but the F-150 is responsible for 28% of Ford’s overall revenue. No F-150, no Ford.

A Leaner Balance Sheet

A year ago, April, I suggested that Ford’s 5%-plus yield was hard to ignore, especially if you were an income investor. Thirteen months later, it’s yielding 5.4% and is likely still very attractive to income investors given the special dividends it’s been paying out each January. This year’s bounty was $0.13 a share, which amounts to an extra $520 million gift to shareholders.

Call it a bribe to keep shareholders happy about their underperforming share price. 

Although I do think debt repayment must remain the company’s key short-term goal, long term, it needs to continue pushing hard on the electrification front. CEO Jim Hackett is committed to spending $11 billion by 2022 to launch as many as 40 new electric vehicles.

To make room for those new vehicles, along with a bunch of SUVs, Ford is getting rid of the Taurus, Fiesta, Fusion, C-Max and Focus sedans. If you want to buy a sedan in a few years, don’t bother heading to the Ford dealership.

Frankly, I’m not sure what to think about the sedan issue, but Ford has to allocate its capital more wisely if it wants to remain one of the world’s best car and truck manufacturers.

Bottom Line on Ford Stock

InvestorPlace’s Ian Bezek said it best recently when he suggested the fact Ford’s CEO thinks 2018 is going to be a rough year is as good a warning sign as any why you might not want to buy Ford stock at the moment.

“That dividend certainly makes it a lot easier to stay with F stock through the rest of this year. Beyond then, the outlook could start to get brighter as the company’s leaner and more fit makeover starts paying off,” Bezek wrote Apr. 20. “On top of that, the spike in metals pricing should begin to revert, leading to a stronger outlook.”

I’m not as confident as Bezek is about the outlook for Ford stock beyond 2018. That said, he’s right on about the dividend.

Although its yield is 90 basis points less than AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), which is 6.3% at the moment, if I were an income investor, I’d definitely buy Ford over AT&T.

However, if you’re looking for capital appreciation, you ought to look elsewhere. 

As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.