Why the Kaepernick Deal Could Actually Be a Good Thing for Nike Stock

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Nike stock - Why the Kaepernick Deal Could Actually Be a Good Thing for Nike Stock

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You don’t build a $130 billion global athletic apparel company by doing things quietly. Instead, you build a $130 billion global athletic apparel company by making bold moves.

From this perspective, Nike (NYSE:NKE) enlisting embattled former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick as the face of their new “Just Do It” campaign shouldn’t be all that surprising. Kaepernick is now more famous for pioneering NFL national anthem protests than for actually playing in the NFL. As such, he is a controversial figure that most brands wouldn’t touch.

That is exactly why Nike is making him the face of their new campaign.

Sure, there have already been and will continue to be Nike brand protests. And, yes, that will have an adverse effect on sales among certain demographics. But, in the bigger picture, Nike is making the right business decision. This new Kaepernick deal will energize the company’s core demographic of buyers, extend further support to its roster of headline athletes and, ultimately, maximize sales and profits in the long run.

Unfortunately, I still don’t think that means it is time to buy Nike stock. Even after factoring in big growth assumptions from the Kaepernick deal, I don’t think Nike stock is worth much more than $80 today. Thus, while I don’t think the stock has much downside here, I also think upside is capped by valuation.

That being said, if Nike stock continues to drop as a result of the Kaepernick campaign, that would be the time to buy the dip.

The Kaepernick Deal Will Fuel Long Term Growth & Brand Loyalty

The normal first reaction to Nike enlisting Kaepernick as the face of its “Just Do It” campaign is: “What?” After all, this is Nike, the premier brand in the athletic apparel space. It counts global superstars LeBron James, Serena Williams and Christiano Ronaldo as sponsored athletes. It could’ve chosen anyone to be the face of this campaign.

So why Kaepernick?

Because it’s a bold move which differentiates the brand from its competitors, energizes its core demographic buyers, extends further support to its most notable athletes and fuels long-term brand loyalty. Put those four catalysts together and, overall, the Kaepernick deal is actually a genius move, which should fuel long-term growth.

On the differentiation side, this one is pretty much a no-brainer. Of course, having someone who is more famous for national anthem protests than for playing in the NFL be the face of your campaign is a different move which makes you stand out from the competition. In today’s crowded athletic apparel world, standing out is a good thing.

Meanwhile, Nike’s athletes have largely aligned themselves with the Kaepernick protests. Nike athlete and NBA superstar LeBron James has spoken on social issues numerous times in the public spotlight and has recently said that he supports the Nike-Kaepernick campaign. Fellow Nike athlete and tennis phenom Serena Williams is also supporting the campaign. Other notable Nike athletes like Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and Paul George all posted the Kaepernick ad on their Instagram pages.

In other words, Nike is doing much more than just signing an athlete. They are creating a movement. And, importantly, all of Nike’s widely followed athletes are joining that movement. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters. Consumers buy Nike shoes because LeBron wears Nike shoes. If LeBron and all other Nike athletes jump to support this new movement from Nike, then it is pretty likely most consumers will follow suit.

In the long run, this will only improve brand loyalty and fuel healthier long-term growth. Sure, Nike will lose a few customers here and there as they protest the Kaepernick ad. But memories don’t last long here, and because Nike makes the best athletic apparel products in the industry, those consumers will likely come back within the next several months. Meanwhile, those who really believe in this movement will likely double down on their Nike loyalty.

Nike Stock Still Isn’t a Buy

Although I believe the Kaepernick deal will drive healthier long-term revenue and profit growth, I also don’t think Nike stock is a buy just yet.

Based on projections for high single-digit revenue growth over the next five years and healthy margin expansion, I think Nike stock is worth just over $80 today. Thus, I think Nike stock is fairly valued at the moment, with downside limited by strong fundamentals and upside limited by a full valuation.

But, there is a chance that Nike stock keeps dropping due to bad optics from the Kaepernick campaign. If that happens, that would be a dip worth buying. As stated earlier, the Kaepernick campaign will do much more long-term good than long-term bad. Thus, any near-term dips below $80 should be treated as buying opportunities.

Bottom Line on NKE Stock

If bad optics from the Kaepernick deal drag Nike stock below $80, then that is a dip investors should consider buying. Until then, waiting on the sidelines is the best move.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities, but may initiate a long position in NKE within the next 72 hours. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/09/why-kaepernick-deal-good-thing-nike-stock/.

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