Comcast Stock Has Become Wall Street’s Quicksand

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Comcast stock - Comcast Stock Has Become Wall Street’s Quicksand

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Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is playing a dangerous game of risking irrelevancy. Toward the end of last month, the Comcast stock price fell sharply. I can understand why. Management announced that it had won its bid for European pay-TV provider Sky (OTCMKTS:SKYAY). What they actually won was an eventual road to the unemployment line.

I don’t want to come off overly dramatic. Clearly, for CMCSA stock to gain back investor favor, the company had to do something. But what it really ought to have done was something sensible. Sure, Comcast’s CEO Brian Roberts couldn’t back down from Disney head Bob Iger. Disney won a high-profile battle for Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA). Therefore, Comcast couldn’t go home empty-handed.

Then again, maybe it should have. The common adage states that “a dollar saved is a dollar earned.” Roberts clearly opted for another saying: “you have to spend money to make money.” But investors will seriously question why management forked over almost $39 billion. Comcast stock is extremely leveraged — and the purchase price doesn’t help.

Currently, buying CMCSA stock exposes you to nearly $62 billion in debt. The problem is that the company is only sitting on $5.7 billion in cash. Therefore, a good chunk of the Sky deal must be financed.

With a generally stronger dollar, and benchmark interest rates jumping to multi-year highs, the timing couldn’t be worse for the Comcast stock price. Moreover, this trend probably won’t abate in the nearer-term. The Trump administration sees no need for an overly dovish monetary policy, which should push rates even higher.

Let’s also talk about Sky’s financials. While Sky currently enjoy a robust business, it’s also cash poor and debt heavy. So why on earth did Comcast’s leadership team fight for Sky? They may have failed their due diligence.

Comcast Stock Exposed to an International Liability

To more fully answer the previous question, both Comcast and Disney sought Sky for potentially lucrative synergies. Sky essentially owns European TV, levering apparently wildly popular programs. With either Comcast or Disney, it can add its own content, providing a compelling entertainment package for new subscribers.

Most importantly, the British media giant owns the exclusive broadcasting rights to the English Premiere League, or EPL for short. For the uninitiated, the EPL is like our NFL, but in many ways bigger. Soccer is the most popular sport in the world, and the EPL is the world’s most-popular soccer league. Put two and two together, and you can see why management had high hopes for CMCSA stock.

Ironically, though, Comcast should have taken a lesson from its rival. Disney’s conspicuous weakness in its business portfolio is ESPN. Sports viewership has declined over the years, and it has impacted virtually all professional leagues. While mainstays like football are permanently woven into the American fabric, key metrics prove that even the NFL can’t avoid worrisome viewership declines.

That’s the problem for Disney’s ESPN, and that’s now the deliberately inherited problem for Comcast stock. If you think that sports viewership is only declining in the U.S., I have news for you: the vaunted EPL is having its own crisis.

TV audiences have steadily declined for English soccer’s top-tier clubs. What’s especially shocking is that world-renowned clubs like Manchester United have suffered bouts of viewership declines. In summer of last year, Sky TV reported a multi-year record decline in average viewership stats.

Recently, international partners are performing a cost-benefit analysis of paying for EPL broadcasts. With rising costs, declining viewership, and millennials gravitating towards eSports, the EPL isn’t worth the trouble. Longer-term, that’s bad news for the Comcast stock price.

CMCSA Stock: More Risk, Less Reward

I don’t necessarily mind expensive deals. In business, you must take risks. I don’t know too many companies that thrive on taking the safe approach all the time.

At the same time, I want deals that make sense. For instance, I don’t mind telecom giants fighting over lucrative airwave rights. The ultra-fast 5G network represents the future and not just for downloading speeds. This next-generation technology actualizes innovations that were previously the exclusive realm of science fiction.

But the Comcast-Sky deal? I don’t see the benefit for CMCSA stock. This is like a presidential candidate running on the campaign promise to bring back coal. Roughly 99% of the time, this strategy does not work.

In all seriousness, look at the broader trends. Regular sports is dying. Its counterpart, eSports, is gaining significant momentum. Again, Comcast should learn from Disney. The Magic Kingdom bet big on eSports, signing a broadcasting deal with Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) for the Overwatch League.

I realize that Comcast is also pursuing eSports, but not with the same vigor. Instead, it’s zeroed in on yesteryear trends. The only people happy about this are those betting against the Comcast stock price.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/comcast-stock-become-wall-streets-quicksand/.

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