Shopify Stock Is a Long-Term Buy, Regardless of Near-Term Noise

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Shopify stock - Shopify Stock Is a Long-Term Buy, Regardless of Near-Term Noise

Source: Shopify via Flickr

The recent market sell-off has been especially unkind to tech stocks. While the Dow and S&P 500 shaved off a few percentage points, the Nasdaq briefly fell into correction territory. Leading the tech sell-off were the high-growth tech companies like Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) that have become Wall Street’s darlings over the past several years. Shopify stock took a bit of a hit.

The ecommerce enabler soared from under $20 per share in early 2016 to $170 per share in late 2018 as secular ecommerce, cloud, and gig economy tailwinds propelled mass adoption of the Shopify platform. But, what goes up like a rocket ship is inevitably due for big pullbacks. Indeed, Shopify stock dropped steeply during the recent sell-off from $160 to $130.

Is this the end of the Shopify stock rally? Is it time to take profits off the table and look for opportunity elsewhere? I don’t think so. Instead, I think it may be time to double down on Shopify stock.

This is a company that represents the future of commerce. But, gross merchandise value was just $26.3 billion last year, versus an addressable global ecommerce market that measures $2.3 trillion and growing. Consequently, this company and stock are still in the early innings of a massive multi-year growth narrative.

As this narrative progresses, near-term noise will be drowned out, and Shopify stock will roar higher.

Shopify’s Fundamentals Are Strong

Ecommerce is the future. There is no denying this mega trend. Commerce sales have migrated en masse to the digital channel, and there are no signs of this migration stalling or even slowing any time soon.

But, as more and more dollars, buyers, and sellers are migrating to digital, the ecommerce landscape is becoming increasingly complex and diversified. This complexity and diversity promises to only grow as the entire ecommerce space grows.

Consequently, demand for a unified platform that streamlines and simplifies the e-retail experience for buyers and sellers will grow significantly over the next several years.

This is exactly what Shopify offers. Shopify builds ecommerce platforms that simplify and streamline the e-retail experience so that sellers can sell across multiple digital channels, customize online stores, manage product inventory, fulfill orders easily, and track sales, all in one place.

Inevitably, demand for this solution will increase over the next several years as more and more commerce is digitally transacted and cloud solutions become more and more widely adopted.

Moreover, Shopify enables anyone to sell anything. This is important because the era of digital has given birth to a time wherein anyone can do anything. This is called the gig economy, and companies that have capitalized on this trend have become extremely successful.

Think Uber, and how it enabled anyone to provide ride-sharing services; or Airbnb, and how it enabled anyone to provide renting services. The same narrative will play out in commerce over the next several years, and Shopify will ultimately enable a new generation of digital sellers.

Overall, Shopify is still in the early stages of a big growth narrative. Over the next several years, ecommerce, cloud, and gig economy tailwinds will propel sales and profits meaningfully higher, and that growth will in turn power Shopify stock higher.

The Numbers Point to a Big Upside

The global ecommerce market measured $2.3 trillion last year and is projected to measure $4.5 trillion by 2021. At that growth rate, the ecommerce market should easily get to $8.5 trillion in a decade.

As the ecommerce market grows in scale, it will look more like the traditional brick-and-mortar commerce market. In the traditional commerce world, the top 10 retailers account for 7% of global sales and the top 250 retailers account for 20% of global sales. Thus, 80% of retail sales out there are accounted for by small-to-medium-sized retailers.

Presumably, those small-to-medium-sized retailers will use Shopify tools as they migrate to e-commerce. An 80% share of e-commerce sales for Shopify is tough to project and, frankly, unreasonable given the competition.

But, a 10% share is a reasonable projection, versus 1% today. Under that assumption, I see Shopify as a $15-to-$20-billion-revenue business with 20%-plus operating margins in a decade.

On the conservative side, that should flow into at least $3 billion in annual profits by 2028. A market-average 16X forward multiple on that implies a 2027 valuation of $48 billion. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a 2018 valuation of $20 billion, versus a present market cap of $14 billion.

Bottom Line on Shopify Stock

This is a big growth stock that got crushed in the recent sell-off. But, that shouldn’t deter long-term investors.

Stocks that go up a lot are bound to have big corrections every once and a while. Longer-term, though, the rallies will far outweigh the corrections, and Shopify stock will head significantly higher.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long SHOP. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/shopify-stock-long-term-buy/.

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