Nike Stock Is No Longer Head and Shoulders Above Adidas Stock

A lot’s been written about Nike (NYSE:NKE) here at InvestorPlace in recent days and weeks. A lot of it good. It’s been some time since I’ve written about Nike stock and its long-time rival Adidas (OTCMKTS:ADDYY).

I wonder if Nike stock is still the better buy?

Let’s start with what I last said about the world’s largest athletic footwear and apparel company in October and go from there.

Nike Stock and Corporate Culture

I’m not going to spend a lot of time on the culture issues at Nike because they’ve been beaten to death by the media, myself included. However, what I had to say about Nike’s future treatment of female employees last fall  is worth mentioning a second time.

“For Nike to really become the leader of the women’s market, it’s going to have to continue to show that it actually cares about women, starting with its own employees,” I wrote Oct. 18. “It’s not enough for Nike to fire a bunch of male executives or settle a few lawsuits. Instead, the company has to completely change how it hires and pays its employees, whether they work in stores or in the company’s executive offices in Beaverton.”

You can talk all day about what great shoe designs it has, but if it treats a big chunk of its employees like second-class citizens, you’re NOT a great business. You’re a business that knows how to sell shoes. There’s a significant distinction.

Anyway, for years, I’ve been talking about Nike buying Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) to bring balance to its business. Now, with LULU making shoes of its own and its men’s business coming on like gangbusters, there’s less need for it to saddle up to a more prominent partner. At this point, Lululemon can go it alone.

So, as it relates to the question of whether Nike stock is a better buy than Adidas, I think a good place to start is the women’s market. There’s a massive opportunity for all three companies. Who’s going to capture more of it?

Nike’s Got the Upper Hand

The latest figures that I have suggests that Nike’s got a reasonably large lead on Adidas in the women’s market.

In October, I estimated Nike’s annual revenue from women was 29% or around $10 billion. For Adidas, I scoured through its financials, but couldn’t find anything meaningful.

A Bloomberg/Quint article from March 2017 put it at 23% of revenue or $5 billion based on fiscal 2016 revenue of $22 billion. The same Bloomberg/Quint article suggested Adidas wanted to double its share of the global women’s market by 2020.

Adidas’ goal for the women’s market is part of its strategy to grow profits by 22% a year until the end of 2020, hopefully closing the gap on its bigger rival.

How’s it doing?

In the first nine months of fiscal 2018, Adidas increased its operating profit year over year by 15.5%, a strong year by most standards, but well short of its self-imposed goal.

Over at Nike, it announced its Q2 2019 results Dec. 20. Through the first six months of the year, Nike grew its operating profits by 16% on much more robust top-line revenues. So, while Nike increased sales by 10% compared to just 3.2% for Adidas, the company with three stripes rather than a swoosh, was able to grow operating profits at the same pace.

In terms of margins, which are a significant part of Adidas’ strategy through 2020: operating profits were 13.4% of sales, 140 basis points higher than a year earlier. Nike had an operating profit margin of 11.7% through the first six months of the year, 60 basis points higher than a year earlier.

Adidas might not be meeting its goal of 22% profit growth in 2018, but it’s pushing more to the bottom line despite much slower sales than its rival.

If you own Adidas stock, I’d be happy with the financial performance in fiscal 2018, despite falling short of its goal.   

Nike Stock vs. Adidas Stock: The Verdict

If you’re a value investor, I’d go with Adidas. If you’re more focused on growth, I’d go with Nike, which seems to have gotten its mojo back.

As of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


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