On Thursday before the long weekend, Skechers (NYSE:SKX) reported earnings and Wall Street hated what it saw. The stock tumbled as much 16% on the headline in the after-hours session. Luckily, Sketchers stock came into the earnings up 38% for the year, so this is merely a setback for those who are already long SKX. But today, we consider if this is a good time to catch the falling knife.
Skechers’ earnings report was not a disaster but definitely lacked any good news to buy on. SKX missed on sales, but it managed its expenses to meet the bottom line.
The company CFO John Vandemore blamed challenging global conditions for the miss, but in retail it’s easy to find excuses, so Skechers should just own up to its failings. However, it is not clear if those conditions are temporary or ongoing, and that is worrisome.
SKX is a momentum stock and those are tough to trade. Thursday’s red candle was too big and deserves respect. Usually, these are not one-day events, meaning the selling could persist for another few days … this is compounded by a prior open gap down to $28 per share.
While not every gap fills, most do. If that happens here, SKX stock would have completely erased all good news from its last earnings report. In theory, this is a natural place to start buying … but this trade isn’t without a ton of risk.
Trading Skechers Stock
SKX stock has been stuck in a horizontal channel since 2015. And as SKX falls into this potential support zone, it also falls back into the clutch of a swamp zone. Sure, it has had its shining moments, but it always comes crashing back to its range of $26 per share.
Holding Sketchers stock for the long-term requires too much patience for most investors. Luckily, management has been fiscally responsible, which places a decent bottom below.
Fundamentally, SKX stock is not bloated. It sells at a 16 price-earnings (P/E) ratio, on par with sales and 2.4 times its book value. But while this is comforting, it alone is not a reason to buy Skechers stock for upside appreciation. To initiate a new position here, it would need to be tactical and for a specific reason.
Technically, there are short-term levels to trade, as SKX stock has support brewing around $26.70 per share. This is a level where bulls and bears have recently agreed on value. So they are likely to fight it out and that creates price congestion. This will be support on the way down.
So if I own SKX shares already, I would not exit now until the zone fails.
Even if the initial support fails, there will be more below it to $24 per share. Conversely, don’t start to chase it upward until it breaches $29 per share first, then $32. Some like to catch the dead cat bounces, but that is not reason enough.
Bottom Line on SKX
To summarize, the current earnings debacle in SKX stock is not a disaster going forward. But this brings Skechers stock back into the clutches of a trap zone that is four years old. I expect SKX to find footing soon, so there is no reason to panic out of it, especially since retail spending is so hot. What’s more, Wall Street experts agree as SKX trades well below their average price targets.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him as @racernic on Twitter and Stocktwits.
