Advanced Micro Devices Stock Set to Climb as Chips Make Tech Inroads

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Despite the high volatility in stock markets in the last month, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) managed to hold the $40-$49 trading range. The PC chip supplier has a broad product pipeline that will weather the unpredictable demand patterns in the near-term period. Chances are good that AMD stock will hold its level as technology investors invest in the company for the long-term.

Advanced Micro Devices Set To Climb Higher as Chips Make Tech Inroads

Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com

On April 14, AMD shares broke-out above the $45-$50 trading range when the company announced a refresh to its server chip, extending the AMD EPYC processor family with three new processor models. For example, it highlighted the AMD EPYC 7Fx2 processor which provides “new performance capabilities for workloads in the heart of the enterprise market including database with up to 17% higher SQL Server performance compared to the competition, hyperconverged infrastructure.”

Building Market Position in Laptops

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has a dominant position in business notebooks, thanks to its energy-efficient integrated graphics (GPU) and central processing architecture. But in the gaming market, Intel relies on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to supply the latest laptop GPU performance. AMD’s latest Zen 2 architecture may disrupt Intel and Nvidia this year. Thanks to its progress in developing Ryzen mobile solutions, AMD demonstrated a gaming laptop that consumes just 35 watts of power. The Asus Zephyrus G14 laptop does not outperform a desktop Intel Core i9-9900K. But AMD’s architecture supports dynamically adjustable clock speeds. This will help AMD offer high performance balanced with a long battery life between charges.

AMD needs the Ryzen 4000 series to take Intel’s market share. And as it readies for a Zen 3 architectural release as soon as September, consumers will have more processing cores on a 7-nanometer fabrication process. At competitive prices and higher performance, sales of mobile AMD chips should grow at a faster rate.

Little Pandemic Impact Seen

At the company’s 2020 Financial Analyst Day on March 5, AMD did not see much of a negative impact on results due to the novel coronavirus. It forecast revenue coming at the lower end of its guidance of around $1.8 billion. For the full year 2020, AMD reaffirmed its financial guidance.

The company expects its leadership in high-performance computing will drive its growth in the data center market. AMD cited the unveiling of its new AMD Compute DNA and building on the launch of its first- and second-generation EPYC server processors driving that growth. For example, it expects to benefit from the availability of “over 150 AMD EPYC processor-powered cloud instances and 140 server platforms.”

AMD must gain a foothold in Intel’s established retail channels. For example, Dell just announced a refreshed XPS 13 (9300) laptop powered by an Intel i3 to i7 core processor range. On the Lenovo website, Intel CPUs are the default chips for laptops unless the consumer specifically selects an AMD option.

In the server segment, AMD has fewer headwinds from Intel. Its infinity fabric 3.0 interconnect technology delivers heterogeneous computing and cache coherence between the CPU and the GPU. AMD could lead to the high-performance computing market. This will have higher profit margins and will offset the lower margins in the consumer space. AMD’s $600 million deal along with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) to deliver a supercomputer for the U.S. Department of Energy is an example of customers choosing AMD instead of Intel.

Valuation Sees AMD Stock Fair Value at $51

Assuming a discount rate of 11% and a terminal revenue multiple of 5.2 times in a revenue exit model, investors should also forecast the following revenue growth:

(USD in millions) Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending 19-Dec 20-Dec 21-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec
Revenue 6,731 8,692 10,284 12,156 13,979 16,076
% Growth 4.00% 29.10% 18.30% 18.20% 15.00% 15.00%
EBITDA 853 1,730 2,208 2,913 3,700 4,656
% of Revenue 12.70% 19.90% 21.50% 24.00% 26.50% 29.00%

Data model created courtesy of finbox.io

This implies a fair value of around $51 for AMD stock.

Chris Lau, contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Chris has over 20 years of investing experience in the stock market and runs the Do-It-Yourself Value Investing Marketplace on Seeking Alpha. He shares his stock picks so readers get original insight that helps improve investment returns.

Chris Lau is a contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Chris has over 20 years of investing experience in the stock market and runs the Do-It-Yourself Value Investing Marketplace on Seeking Alpha. He shares his stock picks so readers get actionable insight to achieve strong investment returns.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2020/04/amd-stock-set-to-climb-as-chips-make-tech-inroads/.

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