Last month, I made the case for Shiba Inu (CCC:SHIB-USD) surging on the heels of more serious names like Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) and Ethereum (CCC:ETH-USD) continuing to rebound. Did this play out? Yes and no.
Yes, with regards to BTC and ETH staying in comeback mode. Recent hiccups notwithstanding, both cryptos have remained on an upwards trajectory. But this unofficial Dogecoin (CCC:DOGE-USD) spin-off hasn’t made similar moves.
Sure, at first, it made an outsized move higher compared to its larger peers. But then, it ceased trending upward, and again began to trade downward.
Meanwhile, its more widely-held peers kept on moving higher into September, only taking a big tumble on Sep 7, when the most recent flash crash occurred.
Due to its recent performance, I no longer hold the thesis that this “memecoin” will move higher just on digital assets coming back in vogue.
So, if not the overall “crypto comeback” giving it a boost, is there anything that can save the day here, at least in the short-term? Perhaps, but whether it happens or not is anyone’s guess.
Unlike the coins mentioned above, with more behind them in terms of institutional support and utility, it’s a straight-up gamble here, and a gamble that’s hard to handicap at that.
Shiba Inu and the Crypto Comeback
After the mid-May meltdown and poor performance during the two months that followed, cryptocurrencies started to come back.
Initially, the rebound in crypto prices extended to Shiba Inu. This “memecoin” made a more-than 50% move higher between July 20 and Aug. 17, but starting on that day, it began to trend lower again.
This was in contrast to the continued move higher for the major coins mentioned above.
While it failed to trade in tandem with the rest going up, it didn’t miss out on the fun during this month’s flash crash.
At the height of the short-lived panic, SHIB prices briefly fell back below where they were before crypto’s overall recovery kicked off (around 0.00058 cents). However, as of this writing, prices have since recovered due to another would-be catalyst.
This factor may seem like it could save the day here, on the surface. But looking at a similar situation, I wouldn’t count on it. There’s only one “catalyst” to move this token higher, and again, it’s something you can’t really handicap.
Will a Coin-Specific Catalyst Help it Play Catch Up?
On Sept. 9, it became available for trading on the crypto exchange’s Pro platform. That same day, SHIB saw a nice boost, helping it recover from its crash-related losses.
But the jury’s still out whether this major exchange listing will help it continue to bounce back.
Take a look at Dogecoin’s performance after its Coinbase debut back in June and you’ll see what I mean. When DOGE debuted there, it was changing hands for just under 38 cents. As of this writing, it’s trading for around 26 cents.
In short, a debut on the popular trading platform may justify a one-day boost, but it’s not something that’s going to by-itself propel SHIB “to the moon” once again.
So, if not from riding on the coattails of the crypto comeback, nor from its debut on Coinbase, what’s going to move Shiba Inu higher again?
The most likely “catalyst,” if you can call it that, would be a return of the “greater fool” mentality that helped this coin and the joke coin that inspired it (Dogecoin) skyrocketed in value earlier this year.
Putting it simply, that’s not something you can really handicap. Our Ian Bezek put it best late last month when he said buying SHIB is like buying lottery tickets. It could “pay off,” but if it does, it’ll be due to sheer chance, not due to making the right call ahead of time.
SHIB’s Next Move Is Anyone’s Guess
Unlike Ethereum or Cardano, this crypto has no forthcoming upgrades that could change the game for it. It’s also not going to benefit much from institutional inflows. Even as the “smart money” continues to pile into the space.
As discussed above, the cryptocurrency comeback hasn’t helped it out much. Chances are, neither will its debut on Coinbase.
The only thing that’s going to send Shiba Inu dramatically higher is a repeat of the speculative frenzy seen earlier this year. But it’s tough to handicap when that next happens (if at all), so steer clear of this situation.
InvestorPlace does not regularly publish commentary about cryptocurrencies that have a market capitalization less than $100 million or trade with volume less than $100,000 each day. That’s because these “penny cryptos” are frequently the playground for scam artists and market manipulators. When we do publish commentary on a low-volume crypto that may be affected by our commentary, we ask that InvestorPlace.com’s writers disclose this fact and warn readers of the risks.
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On the date of publication, Thomas Niel held long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any other securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.