Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD) has actually been trading pretty well lately. The leading cryptocurrency by size is trying to break out further, after an already pretty strong run from the recent lows.
However, there’s been some debate around Bitcoin — not that there’s ever a shortage of that.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $57,500, which means Fidelity (NYSE:FIS) director Jurrien Timmer expects more than 70% upside. Bitcoin is “not a bubble that’s about to burst,” Timmer said, as he called for it to run to $100,000 by 2023.
He argued the following:
This rally has come with little fanfare and doesn’t seem driven by momentum chasers. The percentage of coins held by short-term ‘tourists’ is down to just 15%. This tells me there could be room to run if momentum chasers pile in.
However, Dimon’s not letting his thoughts spill over into the bank’s operations. He added the following:
I don’t want to be a spokesperson — I don’t care. It makes no difference to me…Our clients are adults. They disagree. That’s what makes markets. So, if they want to have access to buy yourself bitcoin, we can’t custody it but we can give them legitimate, as clean as possible, access.
$100,000 Seems More Likely Than Worthless…
…At least by 2023.
Like Dimon, I do have some trouble finding a way to justify the exuberant price of digital currency. There are obvious benefits to Bitcoin, Ethereum (CCC:ETH-USD) and other forms of cryptocurrency.
Unlike the U.S. dollar, there is a finite amount of Bitcoin. Going one step further, that’s also what separates it from all fiat currency, plus the fact that it’s not regulated by a central bank.
There’s “no intrinsic value,” Dimon argues and “regulators are going to regulate the hell out of it.”
There’s a difference between what Dimon is arguing — which is Bitcoin’s very existence — and what Timmer is saying, which is based more on an intermediate-term outlook on Bitcoin’s momentum and trends.
Can both observations be true? Technically, yes. Timmer adds:
I really don’t think bitcoin threatens the dollar or the dollar’s reserve status. Bitcoin’s value proposition is that ultimately it goes from just being a store of value to also being a medium of exchange, and that depends on second layer [developments] that are being built right now.
Further, “Maybe [bitcoin] actually further ensures that the dollar will maintain its reserve status,” he reasoned.
Bitcoin has a market cap north of $1 trillion. Even with increased regulations, it’s hard to imagine that valuation eroding down to nothing. Even before Bitcoin went mainstream, it still traded anywhere between $400 and $2,000.
That’s not exactly worthless — although it would seem that way if it fell there from current levels. As volatile as Bitcoin is, it’s hard to imagine it losing all of its value at this stage.
Breaking Down Bitcoin
The dollar, euro and yen simply fluctuate as a value against each other, while goods and services are valued in these currencies. However, we don’t see the dollar exploding higher in value — like Bitcoin — even though there’s nothing tangible tied to it.
On the other hand though, Bitcoin prices are flying higher, even though there’s nothing tangible tied to it. Its lack of intrinsic value is what makes it hard for so many investors to get behind it and why many doubters think the demand for Bitcoin will eventually wane, creating a Tulip Craze situation.
I agree with Dimon in the sense that there’s no intrinsic value. I disagree in the sense that it’s worthless. One could argue that the dollar is worthless too.
As it pertains to the charts, $100,000 seems more likely to me than $0 (or whatever price is low enough that we consider it “worthless.”)
For what it’s worth, I really respect Dimon and his outlooks. I just disagree in this case.
Bitcoin stumbled on its way into October, but then rallied in seven out of eight sessions, clearing the September high in the process. It’s since tiptoed higher, recently trying to break out over the 78.6% retracement.
From here, let’s see if it can close above this retracement level, opening the door to $60,000, then the highs near $65,000. On the downside, I want to see the 10-day moving average continue to act as support.
Below the 10-day will put the September high back in play, followed by a potential test of the $50,000 mark.
On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.