Ecommerce play Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is rallying today. But before investors dismissively think of this leap as a dead cat bounce, here’s a closer look at why SHOP stock might be worth a buy today.
SHOP stock is trading higher this week by 8% and peeling back a tiny bit of June’s gloomy 17% decline. This has been a painful period for SHOP bulls who were championing a pre-10-to-1 split purchase. Shares are now down by about 43% since Shopify announced its stock split plans on April 11.
But, with the benefits of a natural split in hand, investors have a terrific opportunity at to shop the drop in SHOP stock with confidence.
SHOP Stock’s Favorable 5-to-1 Correction
While this year’s headwinds have been somewhat silenced by investor fatigue in July’s early going, issues like inflation, interest rate hikes, at-risk consumers and supply chain bottlenecks courtesy of Covid-19 have all put a sizable dent in Shopify stock. And Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data should give a boost to headline hawks watching for further indications of a recession.
Still, in a forward-looking market that has already done a fair job of pricing in a cycle of economic contraction and a SHOP stock bear market correction that has acted as a natural 5-to-1 share split with added benefits for bullish investors, it’s time to appreciate the end is near … but in a very attractive way.
Could Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) Last Mile Fleet Solution pose competition for SHOP stock’s small-to-mid-sized businesses within its Shopify Fulfillment Network? Sure. Are lockdown tailwinds for Shopify’s ecommerce edge in the rearview mirror? Mostly.
However, as The Motley Fool notes, Shopify sports a historically cheap sales multiple of just 8 times, an impressive free cashflow to maintain its market lead and a positive secular trend for digital-based retail transactions at its back.
No More Buyer’s Remorse in SHOP Stock
Source: Charts by TradingView
Today, Shopify investors also have a price chart to back up a deep value proposition. Technically speaking, SHOP’s natural share split has put the stock into a modestly lower-low double bottom variation relative to its fast and furious Covid-19 bear market, which finished in March 2020.
With the low developing on record and climatic-looking volume and a monthly stochastics indicator signaling a bullish crossover in oversold territory, conditions for a new bull market cycle to emerge appear quite strong.
What’s more, Shopify buyers have the market at their back too. (Somewhat).
Right now, and since June 24, the tech-heavy, large-cap Nasdaq and S&P 500 have been in a confirmed rally after the market generated a critical, high-powered and bullish follow-through-day (FTD).
As a contrarian trade, with multiple FTD disappointments in 2022 and the current signal subsequently warning of a 90% chance of failure (but not making good on that bearish promise), it’s an even better time to shop the drop in SHOP stock.
Shop the Drop in SHOP Stock
Investors have the chance to buy growth at a very attractive discount with a Shopify stock. What buyers don’t have is monthly or even weekly chart candlestick pattern confirmation. But even with that kind of price assurance, there’s never a guarantee of success.
Given Shopify’s volatile stock behavior, waiting means paying more for that stock merchandise. One workaround for a stock of SHOP’s caliber is for buyers to consider collaring a purchase.
This fully hedged strategy is outwardly a bullish spread, but when actively managed over a longer period of time, the benefits of making profitable adjustments and maneuvering options around a trending Shopify can provide more consistent profits in both bull and even bear markets.
On the date of publication, Chris Tyler did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.