Nvidia Corporation Stock Price May Depend on Three Numbers

NVDA stock - Nvidia Corporation Stock Price May Depend on Three Numbers

Source: Shutterstock

Now that Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has passed through the $200-mark on its way to $350, I’ve got my eyes focused on three numbers that could move NVDA stock higher as we move through 2017 and into 2018.

In my last article about NVDA stock, I stated that it would hit $350 by the end of calendar 2019 and before Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) hits $25.

To have a hope of achieving this, Nvidia has got to hit some targets over the next 24 months. Here are three numbers I believe are critical to its success or failure.

NVDA’s Tegra Processor

Over Nvidia’s past seven fiscal years, its Tegra processor segment’s revenue has never been higher than $824 million. That mark was achieved in fiscal 2017. It got as low as $198 million in fiscal 2011.

It’s time to break through $1 billion for the first time. As of the end of July, its halfway point of fiscal 2018, the segment had revenue of $665 million. That represents double its revenue in the same quarter a year earlier.

When Nvidia reports its Q3 2018 earnings November 9, I’ll be looking to see how the segment performed in the quarter. Over the past five quarters, it has managed to grow the segment’s revenue four of those times sequentially. Revenue in Q2 2018 was flat from the first quarter.

So, I want to see more than $333 million in revenue from its Tegra processor segment in Q3 2018. I also want to see more revenue in the subsequent quarter as well.

It might not be as big a contributor to the top — and bottom — line (15% in Q2 2018) but the demand for system-on-chip modules is growing.

NVDA’s Gaming Revenue

In the second quarter, Nvidia generated $1.19 billion in revenue from the gaming market — up 52% year over year and 15% sequentially over Q1 2018 — which accounts for 53% of its overall revenue.

Gaming revenue is the biggest revenue generator for the company. So the YOY and sequential growth has got to continue through 2018 and into 2019 to keep this bus moving higher.

Gaming revenues in the Tegra processor segment increased by 800% YOY in the second quarter. Although Nvidia doesn’t break down the gaming revenues from each segment, you can be sure that another triple-digit increase in Q3 will deliver on sequential growth for Tegra processor segment.

NVDA’s Artificial Intelligence

In September, InvestorPlace’s James Brumley did an excellent job highlighting all the things Nvidia is doing in artificial intelligence, including working with General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) on developing robotic drones with Nvidia’s DGX-1 supercomputer doing the heavy lifting from a computing standpoint.

So, come November 9, I’d also be taking a close look at the company’s data center revenue, which increased 180% in the quarter to $416 million and $825 million for the first six months of the year, making it the company’s second-biggest market after gaming.

Bottom Line on NVDA Stock

I continue to see good things happening for NVDA stock holders as the company further grows these key areas of its business.

Sure, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) might be considering dropping Nvidia in favor of its own chips, but that decision’s yet to be made and the last time I looked, Elon Musk’s probably more concerned about getting Model 3s out the door — no matter the supercomputer used to run all the car’s systems.

We’ll know more in a few days.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/11/nvidia-corporation-stock-price-may-depend-on-three-numbers/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC