Buy Amazon Stock Because Its Retail Business Only Is Getting Stronger

Amazon stock - Buy Amazon Stock Because Its Retail Business Only Is Getting Stronger

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At the heart of the recent market sell-off has been internet growth giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Amazon stock once looked unstoppable and the company itself was the poster child of secular growth in multiple internet service markets, like ecommerce and cloud.

But, cracks started to form in that narrative with a worrisome third quarter earnings report and a dour fourth quarter guide. Namely, Amazon’s ecommerce business has been rapidly slowing and was projected to slow even further during a holiday quarter that was expected to be a blowout one.

As concerns related to Amazon’s e-retail slowdown have risen over the past two months, Amazon stock has dropped. At one point, Amazon stock was over 30% below its recent highs.

But, Amazon’s e-retail business has started to show signs of life recently. Namely, Amazon reported that this holiday season was it’s best yet, while Mastercard reported that digital sales during the holiday season rose nearly 20%. Not coincidentally, AMZN has risen over 10% in the past few trading days alone.

This trend will persist. Robust holiday numbers indicate that Amazon simply sandbagged its holiday quarter guide back in late October. To be sure, the ecommerce business is slowing. But, not to the extent the guide implied, nor to the extent the Street had priced into Amazon stock. As those ecommerce slowdown fears peel back over the next several weeks to months, Amazon stock should start to take back lost ground.

Due to this set up, AMZN looks ready for a big rally to start 2019.

Robust Holiday Numbers Are a Big Catalyst

There were many macroeconomic culprits behind the 30%-plus plunge in AMZN. Rising rates. Concerns over a looming recession. Trade tensions. But, the biggest culprit was company-specific. Amazon’s ecommerce business was rapidly losing steam.

Last quarter, online store sales growth was just 11%. It was 22% in the year ago quarter. Third-party seller services growth was 32% last quarter, versus 40% in the year ago quarter. Meanwhile, the guide called for overall revenue growth of just 15% in the holiday quarter, versus nearly 40% in the year ago quarter. But, Amazon’s other business like Amazon Web Services and digital advertising aren’t slowing at all.

The implication? The ecommerce business was about to come off the rails in the holiday season due to rising competition from the likes of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT).

That didn’t happen.

Instead, Mastercard said that online sales rose nearly 20% this holiday season, and that overall retail sales posted their highest growth rate in six years. That was a bullish read for Amazon, considering the company controls about 50% of the U.S. ecommerce market. Then, Amazon confirmed that read by saying they had their best holiday season ever.

Broadly speaking, it looks like Amazon just sandbagged the holiday quarter guide. Considering that guide was the biggest thing weighing on Amazon stock, the Street realizing it was a low-ball guide will inevitably bring buyers back into the stock. This buying wave will most likely propel Amazon stock materially higher in the New Year.

To be sure, Amazon’s retail business is still slowing. It’s 50% market share isn’t sustainable forever. But, secular growth tailwinds in e-commerce are clearly strong enough to offset lost market share, and power sustainable double-digit growth. That is all AMZN needs to head higher from here.

So Much to Like in Multi-Year Outlook

In the big picture, continued healthy growth in the ecommerce business is just one pillar of Amazon’s multi-year growth narrative. Arguably, it is the least exciting.

Elsewhere, you have the cloud business, which is growing at a 40%-plus clip. This business is the head-and-shoulders leader in a secular growth cloud market that should produce 20%-plus annualized growth over the next several years.

You also have the digital advertising business, which is growing at a 100%-plus clip. This is a relatively new business for Amazon. But, it has tremendous potential considering Amazon is one of the most visited websites in the world. As Amazon grows share in this secular growth market over the next several years, the digital ad business should grow at a very healthy rate.

There’s also the offline retail business. Amazon not only owns Whole Foods, but is also planning on opening 3,000 cashier-less AmazonGo stores by 2021. Considering only 10% of U.S. retail sales happen in the digital format, this offline push presents a huge opportunity for Amazon to significantly grow wallet share.

On the more speculative side, you have the logistics and pharmaceutical businesses. The logistics business is still in its relative infancy, but Amazon has the resources and fulfillment center network to build out a logistics network in America on par with UPS (NYSE:UPS) or FedEx (NYSE:FDX).

Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical business is an early stage attempt to electronically disrupt the $300 billion pharmacy market in the U.S. More than 70% of consumers would be willing to purchase prescription drugs through Amazon. Thus, there is visibility to Amazon controlling the lion’s share of that $300 billion pharmacy market in a few years.

Bottom Line on Amazon Stock

The big reason Amazon stock plunged 30% was because of concerns related to a retail slowdown. Robust holiday results underscore that such concerns were overstated. As such, Amazon stock is bouncing back.

In the bigger and longer term picture, sustained healthy growth in retail is just one peg in this company’s multi-faceted growth narrative. Between cloud, digital advertising, offline retail, logistics, and pharmaceutical, AMZN stock has more that enough firepower to eventually retake its $1 trillion valuation, and then some. As such, near term pain is simply a long term opportunity.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN and TGT. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/12/amazon-stock-retail-business-stronger/.

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