In late May, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) COO Anthony Noto was interviewed at this year’s Code conference, giving the company chief a chance to tell attendees, as well as current and prospective owners of TWTR stock (and anyone else watching the subsequent video), where the microblogging platform is going.
One-on-one with Recode’s host, Noto laid out a new mission that focuses on four (and only four) goals for Twitter:
- Fastest — having the news first.
- Comprehensive — facilitating all the nuanced side discussion.
- Discussion — be the go-to forum for everyone.
- Personalized — cater to what a user does and does not want.
Sounds good, and the well-spoken executive made a point of adding how important video was to the company’s future. It was almost enough to convert a non-believer into a bullish believer in Twitter stock… almost.
Jumping to Conclusions
Having had several days for his comments to simmer and to cross-reference Twitter’s intended model, it’s still difficult to conclude anything other than that Twitter is still listless and drifting
Those are hard words to hear, and write, with the echoes of Cleveland Research’s recent optimism still ringing. The small research firm noted that advertisers are finally starting to warm up to the struggling site, saying “This is the best relative feedback in our TWTR research in 2+ years, suggesting some potential bottoming in fundamentals; we look for follow-through improvement in our research for turning more near-term positive.”
TWTR stock jumped 5% on the news, as the comment is relatively bullish, and shares edged a little higher the next few days. “Better” isn’t the same as “good”‘ though, and certainly not “great.” Cleveland Research connected some important dots, but ignored other dots in the process. It’s still not clear that Twitter actually has a marketable product that can drive growth for the long haul.
The Lingering Problem
While Cleveland Research is a credible enough source, as is Noto himself, the questions that have plagued Twitter from its early days have yet to be adequately addressed. Specifically: What is Twitter supposed to be? Why would a user remain interested? And, Why would an advertiser be willing to pay for access to those users? Simply having a back-and-forth platform isn’t quite enough.
The response — regardless of who it comes from — will almost invariably tout the introduction of video as the long-awaited reason more and more people would want to join and consistently use the microblogging platform.
The crowning achievement to that end is arguably last year’s partnership with the NFL, giving Twitter the right to stream 10 of the league’s Thursday night games online. Anybody could watch, Twitter members or not, and the stream of game-related Tweets on the same screen at least somewhat answered the question “What do I do with Twitter?”. Noto explained during the Code conference interview that activity grew by as much as a factor of four during and after the streamed match-up.
Twitter lost out to Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in this year’s bid for those NFL games, but the point had been made — Twitter has something tangible to sell to advertisers.
In that light, Twitter’s 800 hours worth of live streaming video in the first quarter seems like a step in a positive direction, as does the recently announced video partnerships with Bloomberg, BuzzFeed and others.
There’s an inherent philosophical flaw with the embrace of video, though. While each video is an opportunity to suck new and existing users into the Twitterverse and engage them in online conversation (or, let’s face it, an argument), the fact that Twitter has to go to such lengths just to get people to use the blogging side of the platform underscores just how disinterested people are in the very notion of super-short messages delivered to nobody in particular.
In other words, with the advent of video, the least-relevant aspect of the microblogging site is quickly becoming the microblogging itself.
Advertisers want access to eyeballs, but Twitter still ultimately lacks the sticky engagement that rivals the one already available on the social network known as Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB). That’s largely why Twitter’s ad-impression prices have been falling so sharply, shrinking by double digits on a year-over-year basis for the past several quarters. Never mind the fact that anything Twitter can do with video, Facebook can — and is — doing better.
Looking Ahead for TWTR Stock
To be sure, Noto’s polished chat at this year’s Code conference offered an insightful explanation of how Twitter is looking to leverage video into becoming a growth engine. Still, a closer, second look/listen of the interview leaves TWTR stock investors with any number of unanswered questions.
Chief among those is: Where’s the convincing evidence that the strategy will work meaningfully well? Last year’s NFL deal, a heated Presidential election process, and the first quarter’s plethora of live video was interesting to be sure, but given the hype, their fiscal impact for Twitter didn’t quite roll in as firmly as some hoped.
Kudos to part-time CEO Jack Dorsey for thinking in terms of decades rather than quarters or even years. But it’s unlikely most current TWTR stock holders can wait decades for respectable results, particularly when there’s so little reason to think that all the recent turnaround efforts — video, in particular — are going to get meaningful traction.
As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.