Are markets misreading the Iran news?… the households that can't absorb $100 oil… private credit stress spreads beyond software… and what to do now

Markets flip to rate-hike odds for the first time this cycle… OpenAI kills Sora as AI monetization wobbles… private credit investors race for the exits… and why it's all the same story

Could a spark light private credit markets on fire? According to former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, the answer is clear: Absolutely.

For nearly a thousand years, the Theodosian Walls of Constantinople (modern-day Istanbul) stood as one of the most formidable defenses ever constructed. That’s exactly the kind of strength today’s market is demanding.

In today’s Friday Digest takeover, Louis pulls back the curtain on the $3 trillion private credit market – often referred to as the “shadow banking system.” He explains why rising rates are beginning to expose cracks that Wall Street is only now starting to acknowledge.

A new twist in the K-shaped economy… why Luke Lango says the Iran war will widen the K’s spokes… a new divide emerging inside AI itself… beware the growing danger in private credit… and what it's all telling us about the future of AI

Iran rejects a ceasefire… how does this war resolve?... Luke Lango’s roadmap and timeline… a flurry of red flag headlines from private credit… it’s time to be careful

What happens now that we’ve lost the 200-day moving average… will we have an off ramp in the Middle East… how to invest despite volatility… when lofty valuations aren’t so lofty

To give you a sense of these “Golden Rivet” makers Eric discusses in his latest presentation, I’d like to highlight two companies at the forefront of the AI bottlenecks… and that have been overlooked by Wall Street almost entirely so far.

Beneath the surface of the AI boom, a series of hidden supply bottlenecks is beginning to tighten. And unlike interest rates or inflation data, which tell you what already happened, these bottlenecks are shaping what happens next.

In today’s guest essay, Eric explains specific bottlenecks that created massive gains during past tech booms, and why the same dynamic may now be unfolding again.

What is OpenClaw and why does it matter?... CPUs: what’s old is new again… more examples of supply/demand imbalances… how to invest today

The Fed holds rates steady… plenty of unknowns as we look ahead… an area of the market acting independently of the Fed and interest rates… another red flag in private credit… “follow the money” into AI bottlenecks

At its core, the former gatekeepers of AI technologies are quickly seeing their dominance vanish... some from supply chains catching up, and others due to AI itself.

The AI revolution requires enormous amounts of critical materials. When demand outruns supply, bottlenecks form – and the companies controlling those choke points can become some of the market’s biggest winners.