We’ve opened a new bearish trade on Walmart (WMT). The “Black Friday” sales numbers have been trickling in and, no matter which report you read, the news doesn’t look good for Walmart.

ShopperTrak estimates that shoppers only spent $12.1 billion at traditional stores, which is a decline in in-store spending from last year. Adding insult to injury, the National Retail Federation reported that more people shopped online than in stores during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, according to a survey it sent out on Sunday, and much of that online shopping is being done on smart phones. This is bad news for a big-box retailer, even one that is trying to establish more of an online presence, as smart-phone shoppers aren’t part of Walmart’s core consumer base.

With Walmart in a longer-term downtrend, we anticipate the fall from the short-term bounce up above $60 is going to happen relatively quickly. We are setting our initial profit target just above the stock’s recent low of $56.30, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see Walmart drop to a new 52-week low as more concrete numbers start rolling in.

‘Buy to open’ the WMT January 57.50 Puts (WMT160115P00057500) for a maximum price of $1.10.

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