Should I Buy Boeing Co (BA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

Advertisement

Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) has been flying high lately. In fact, BA stock was having a good run before the election of Trump: since mid-September 2016, Boeing stock has logged an impressive gain of 44%. The performance is in stark contrast to what happened a couple years before, when BA stock essentially treaded water.

Should I Buy Boeing Co (BA) Stock? 3 Pros, 3 Cons

Keep in mind that the company is in the midst of various major launches, including the 737 MAX jetliner and the 787-10. There is also the T-X trainer military aircraft.

According to the most recent earnings call from CEO Dennis Muilenburg:

“Our priorities are to continue leveraging the unique competitive advantage we have in operating as one Boeing; building strength on strength to deliver on our existing plans and commitments; and to stretch beyond those plans by sharpening and accelerating our pace of progress on key enterprise growth and productivity efforts.”

This is certainly a great vision. But then again, Boeing stock definitely has its challenges. Just look at the KC-46A Pegasus, which has resulted in roughly $2 billion in losses.

With that as a backdrop, here are three pros and three cons prospective or current BA stock investors need to consider:

3 Pros for BA Stock

Diversified Global Platform: For more than a century, Boeing has been at the forefront of innovation. The company also has a history of making bet-the-company investments, as seen with the development of the 747 back in the late 1960s.

As of now, Boeing is the world’s largest aerospace company and it has customers in 150 countries. Besides building commercial and military jets (like F-15 and F-18 fighters), the company also develops satellites, weapons, launch systems and advanced information technologies.

Furthermore, BA continues to invest heavily in research and development, with expenditures coming to $4.6 billion in 2016 — this is up from $3 billion in 2014.

Long-Term Trends: They certainly look promising for BA stock. Just in India alone, there will need to be 1,850 new planes for the next 20 years — coming to over $265 billion. But there should be continued strong demand in the Asia-Pacific region. Consider that the estimate for demand is for 15,130 new jets, which would be about $2.3 trillion.

Then again, according to the International Air Transport Association, passenger demand is expected to double by 2035, to about 5.8 billion passengers. Keep in mind that by 2024 China is expected to be the world’s largest aviation market.

But BA stock should also benefit from the positive trends in defense spending, since the world continues to be dicey, as seen with instability in the Middle East as well as places like North Korea.

As a result, the Trump administration is calling for a hefty 10% hike in the defense budget to $54 billion.

Financials: They continue to be solid. For 2016, Boeing reported $10.5 billion in operating cash flows. As for the current year, the company also expects a similar amount.

With all this cash flow, BA has more than enough resources to plow money into R&D, but also to make share buybacks and pay out dividends. Last year, the company repurchased a hefty 55.1 million shares for $7 billion, and the dividend yield is an attractive 3.1%.

3 Cons for BA Stock

Valuation: Boeing stock is not particularly cheap, with the price-to-earnings ratio at 24X. By comparison, Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) sports a multiple of only 15X and both Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) and General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD) trade at about 20X.

According to InvestorPlace.com’s James Brumley: “Although the future may look brighter, that’s still a tough earnings multiple to justify based on the next few months.”

Wall Street sell-side analysts are also getting cautious. Consider that the consensus price target is at $174, which is under the current $185 price of BA stock.

Energy Prices: This is actually a big-time factor for Boeing stock. With the price of crude at low levels, there is not as much need for airlines to buy fuel-efficient planes.

In fact, there are already signs of this. From 2015 to 2016, the number of commercial plane orders went from 768 to 668. And given the big price tags, it does not take too much of a drop to have a material impact on revenues and profits.

Politics: This is always an issue with BA stock, but with the election of Trump, the impact could be even more significant.

First of all, there is the impact of Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR). Just one tweet can knock a couple percentage points off Boeing stock!

And Trump has also used his power to negotiate on government contracts as well, which could weigh on margins. Finally, there is also the possibility of the defunding of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. If this happens, there will be less funding for purchase orders.

Verdict on Boeing Stock

For the long-term, BA should benefit nicely — both from the commercial and military businesses. More importantly, Boeing is one of the few companies with the scale to be a key player in these markets.

The problem, though, is that the valuation is being stretched, at least compared to its peers. And there are several factors that could easily take down the BA stock price, such as the political uncertainty with the Trump administration or the risk of slowing orders for commercial jets.

In other words, when looking at the pros and cons on Boeing stock, the best strategy for now is to wait to get it at a better price.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook and is the author of various books, including Taxes 2017: Saving A BundleFollow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books. They include Artificial Intelligence Basics and the Robotic Process Automation Handbook. His upcoming book is called Generative AI: How ChatGPT and other AI Tools Will Revolutionize Business.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/03/should-i-buy-boeing-co-ba-stock-3-pros-3-cons/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC