When June’s auto sales numbers came out earlier in the month, investors went into a bit of a panic mode. With the total number of cars sold last month coming in less than May’s total – against a backdrop of disturbing economic data – the market understandably put automakers in a pessimistic light.
Once again though, investors may have fallen victim to the “right here, right now” mentality of the media, which only looks at one month’s worth of data at a time, and offers no historical context to it.
To paint the complete picture that most news sources didn’t, here’s a quick visual look at the whole auto manufacturing story since 2006, with aa few brief comments.
First and foremost, auto sales are trending higher. This is undeniable. Oh, we’re still nowhere near the annual sales rate from the early 2000’s of 16 million vehicles a year, and it’s certainly choppy from month to month. That’s nothing unusual, though. We’re still well above the annual sales rate around 9 million from early 2009, and the overall growth trend is quite intact. [the sharp dips that seem to roll along every 12 months are the normal January lull.]
But what about last month’s hiccup? Isn’t that a sign that the growth trend is coming to a close?
Talk about making a mountain out of a molehill. It is true U.S. car sales fell from May to June, from 804,000 to 796,000. What the media didn’t tell you – at least not effectively – was that auto sales nearly always slide in June — it’s a seasonal thing. As far as Junes go, though, it was actually the strongest June we’ve seen in the last three years.
Car sales in March and April of this year were also oddly strong, making any comparison a pretty big hurdle to get over.
Which manufacturers are growing sales faster than others? After all, this may well be the key determinant in which stocks an investor selects.
While it seems a little unfair to kick a company while it’s down, both Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) were in a growth slump before this March’s tsunami and countrywide industrial slowdown. General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford (NYSE:F
), and Chrysler have all been making steady progress out of the darkest days of the recession. Though it’s a little tough to make out on this chart, Nissan (PINK:NSANY) has also been chipping away at U.S. market share.
While it’s not a perfect representation, car sales trends in the U.S, are a pretty good proxy for global car sales. So, the growth here – or lack thereof – isn’t apt to be offset by a meaningful amount somewhere else.
Just to put some specific numbers behind the disparity though, check out the change in this year’s (to date) market share compared to last year’s total market share.
Once again, Honda’s and Toyota’s plunge in market share is easily attributed to the tsunami and subsequent shuttering of its manufacturing capability. But that’s a little misleading. Honda’s U.S. market share began to slip in 2010, to 10% from 2009’s 11%. Toyota commanded 16% of the U.S. market in 2009, then 15% last year, vs. only 13% for 2011 so far.
The changes may seem small, but by auto manufacturer (and investor) standards, the fiscal impact is huge.
Interestingly, and importantly, the biggest threat to Ford’s, General Motor’s, Chrysler’s, and Nissan’s growth isn’t from the other two majors, Honda and Toyota, with or without their post-tsunami factory shutdowns. It’s the ‘others’ that are making relative headway into the market. These smaller names, ranging from Audi to BMW to Subaru to Volvo (and more) have grown their market share from 20% to 22% between 2009 and 2011. Unfortunately for U.S. investors, it’s difficult to make a direct investment in those companies.
Still, sales for GM, Nissan, Ford, Toyota, Honda, and Chrysler – which is now mostly owned by Fiat (PINK:FIATY) – are trending positively again, as are profits for all six.
It’s worth noting Honda and Toyota were already seeing stagnation on the earnings front before the tsunami, though the slowdown has worsened since. Nissan has staved off the worst of the tsunami’s effects though, and has remained within striking distance of record earnings. Ford and GM are both earning more than either earned even in the heydays of 2006 and 2007, even if both had nowhere to go but up. That said, there are no meaningful historical comparisons to the pre-bankruptcy GM, though earnings growth has been impressive since then all the same.
The bottom line is, though tepid, there’s still growth here. Japan’s tsunami couldn’t have happened at a worse time for its automakers, but that slack has been more than picked up by Ford, Chrysler, and GM.
Last month’s blip isn’t anything to worry about, as it barely even registers as a blip in the bigger picture. The only concern here is earnings dwindling back into the red for the group as a whole, and we’re nowhere near there yet.