The Next Great Trades You Didn’t See Coming

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There aren’t too many certainties when it comes to investing, but one of the things that is certain is this: Nothing lasts forever, for better or worse. Yesteryear’s or even yesterday’s hot trend could be stopped at a moment’s notice and be replaced by a new hit nobody saw coming. In fact, it might be happening now.

And what’s the new hot group of stocks? Utilities.

Don’t laugh. The sector has led the market for months on end before, including 2011. That’s right — the utilities industry’s stocks are now at the front of the line in terms of year-to-date performance.

And don’t be misled, either. They’re not leading because they lost less than other sectors. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU) is up 9% for the year so far, rising firmly but quietly since July when all other sector groups started to tumble. The trend shows no signs of quitting either.

While it’s tempting to jump on the leaders of the pack, that might not be the best way to play the budding trend at this point. Rather, the focus should be on the stocks in the same sector that have yet to follow that bullish lead in a meaningful way (but are due). In that light, there are three picks that stand out as prime opportunities right now, for a combination of technical and fundamental reasons.

Public Service Enterprise Group Inc.

Technically speaking, Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE:PEG) is an energy trader and independent power wholesaler, though it’s still a goose/gander situation — it rises and falls with the utilities tide. And in this case, the recent bullish tide of the utilities sector has pulled PEG to within striking distance of a major breakout above $34.10.

While the trading range itself is clear on the chart below, what is not clear is just how devalued Public Service Enterprise Group shares become in 2008/2009, and how much room they have to recover now. This stock was trading near $50 in early 2008, so the nearly three-year consolidation period could have an even bigger slingshot effect given how beaten down it’s been for far too long.

Public Service Enterprise Group is another utilities stock that’s expected to post weaker earnings in 2012 than we’re seeing now. After beating analysts’ estimates in three of the past four quarters, though, that outlook and the associated forward-looking P/E of 13.4 might be needlessly pessimistic. The chart’s action indicates the market’s starting to think the same way.

PPL Corporation

Up until three weeks ago, it wasn’t clear if PPL Corporation (NYSE:PPL) was simply brushing the upper edge of a range and prepping for another pullback, or testing the waters for a breakout above $28.10. In the meantime, though, PPL has indeed managed to crawl above that ceiling and stay there. This should be a convincing move for all the would-be bulls that still are on the sidelines.

That being said, it’s not as if PPL Corporation didn’t earn a higher stock price. Last year was its most profitable year ever, and although the current 2011 forecasts say per-share earnings are going to fall, that’s not likely to actually happen. In three of the past four quarters, this utilities provider has handily topped estimates, earning $2.86 for the 12-month stretch versus an expected $2.46. Nothing significant has changed between then and now.

Exelon Corporation

Finally, it’s been a case of two steps forward and one step back since the middle of last year, but Exelon Corporation (NYSE:EXC) shares are indeed starting to make forward progress — at least within the confines of a rising trading range. Even within that range, though, we’re seeing a bullish divergence grow between the 100-day average line (gray) and the 200-day moving average (green). This effort could be the one that breaks the stock out of the rut and range, especially after months of being held down.

At least a little bit of investors’ hesitation to step into Exelon is its heavy exposure to nuclear power generation. After Fukushima, the entire industry was assumed to be on its death bed. Now that the dust is settling, though — and now that it’s clear nuclear power isn’t going away — traders are once again focusing in on the company’s reliable earnings streak, a dividend yield of 5% and a palatable P/E ratio of 9.8.

The Last Word

As if the brewing bullishness on all three charts and the sector-wide strength wasn’t enough, there’s one more reason to take interest in the utilities group now: because nobody else is talking about them yet. Seriously. By the time a trend becomes obvious and the mainstream media is touting it, the bulk of the opportunity is over. Getting into these names now gets you in before the trade gets a little too crowded to do you any good.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/09/great-trades-utility-stocks-to-buy-xlu-peg-exc/.

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