MARCH MADNESS: BlackRock (BLK) vs. CVS Health (CVS)

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BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) is the world’s largest asset manager by a wide manager at a time when the industry is undergoing a surge in growth. CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS) is one of the nation’s largest pharmacy benefits managers at a time with strong demographics at its back.

march-madness-250Both stocks have performed exceeding well for a while now. Indeed, BLK and CVS have outperformed the broader market by wide margins for the year-to-date, the last 52 weeks and the trailing three years.

The similarities don’t end there. Macroeconomic and demographic factors are boosting business at both enterprises and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Neither stock looks expensive compared to the broader market, which doesn’t look all that cheap these days.

But which one will win the race from here on out?

Markets tend to correct or crash, and that doesn’t do much for business at BLK. At CVS, risks include the Republican challenge to the Affordable Care Act and revenue erosion due to more sales of generic drugs. And then, of course, there’s always the unexpected.

That said, one of the names appears to offer a clear advantage over the other on a risk-adjusted basis. Let’s have a look.

BlackRock (BLK)

After getting pounded in the last market crash, BlackRock has been having a great time during this long bull market. BLK is beating the S&P 500 by about 120 percentage points since the market bottom of March 2009. That outperformance extends to more recent times too, with BLK smoking the broader market over the last 52 weeks and year-to-date.

Will a rate hike slow BlackRock down? Perhaps to the extent that investors are buying assets with borrowed money. The rate hate will also hurt bond prices, and that in turn will lead to outflows. Finally, if higher rates cool down the stock market, that will hurt asset managers too. On the other hand, higher interest rates will make all manner of fixed income assets a hell of a lot more attractive, especially as bonds get cheaper.

Beyond all that, BlackRock is growing tremendously fast, and that promises to continue as the labor market improves and boomers invest their required minimum distributions elsewhere. From 2008 to 2013, BLK’s assets under management increased 230%, according to Towers Watson. That’s faster growth than any other top 50 global asset manager. By the end of 2013, BLK had assets under management of $4.3 trillion. No. 2 Vanguard claimed a distant $2.8 trillion.

As for valuation, BLK trades at a premium to its five-year earnings multiples, but remains much cheaper than the broader market. Most importantly, BLK doesn’t look expensive considering its robust long-term growth rate.

CVS Health (CVS)

As we noted earlier, few companies have such strong demographics and other macro factors at their backs. As both a pharmacy and pharmacy benefits manager, CVS is loving health reform and our rapidly aging population. The expansion of healthcare coverage has created millions of new customers, and baby boomers are just entering their retirement year.

Getting more granular, CVS is doing a good job expanding margins to make up for lower revenue as sales get pinched by new lines of generic drugs. It also welcome news for CVS that Americans keep setting new records when it comes to spending on healthcare. Indeed, total spending on prescription drugs rose 13% last year.

None of this is a secret to the market however. CVS stock is up nearly 7% so far this year, while the market is essentially flat. Over the last year, CVS Health has outperformed the market by close to 30 percentage points. That kind of move can stretch any stock’s valuation, and CVS is no exception.

CVS trades at premiums of 20% and 50%, respectively, to its own historical average forward and trailing earnings multiples. However, shares remain much cheaper than the broader market, despite a much better growth forecast.

Our Second-Round Pick: CVS

BLK has a more compelling valuation than CVS, and you have to be concerned that at some point the pharmacy company will get hit with multiple compression, For now, however, CVS appears to have too much momentum to ignore.

Furthermore, the current headwind generated by uncertainty over Obamacare could set the stock up for a nice pop if the status quo for the program is confirmed.

Additionally, the Food and Drug Administration just approved the first biosimilar drug for use in the U.S. As sort of generic version of a biotech drug, biosimilars will eventually grow into a serious revenue stream. The market is expected to approach $10 billion in the next three or four years.

Head back to the Stock Market Madness bracket to vote for your favorite stocks and check out other previews!

As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2015/03/blackrock-blk-cvs-health-march-madness/.

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