Twilio Inc (TWLO) Stock Will Be a Great Play … Someday

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Twilio stock - Twilio Inc (TWLO) Stock Will Be a Great Play … Someday

Source: John Britton via Flickr

Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) has had a stomach-churning ride since coming public in late June. Twilio stock zoomed from a $15 offering price to a high of nearly $69 in late September. But since then, TWLO has not been able to overcome the downbeat sentiment in the markets. Now, shares are sinking down to $31 in the wake of Twilio’s latest earnings report.

TWLO stock, Twilio, msn

TWLO stock is off about 5% in Thursday’s after-market trading after its latest announcement. And that’s despite the fact that Twilio — which operates a cloud platform for communications in mobile apps — is still growing like a weed.

In its third quarter, revenues shot up by 62% to $71.5 million, which beat the consensus by $4.7 million. TWLO also beat on the bottom line, posting a net loss of 4 cents per share of Twilio stock, which was half of what Wall Street expected the company to lose.

Here are some of the other highlights of the quarter:

  • The number of active customer accounts reached 34,457, up 44% on a year-over-year basis
  • TWLO announced an Enterprise plan, which provides for advance security and access management features.
  • The company purchased WebRTC, a provider of media processing technologies.

UPDATE: Twilio guidance was also encouraging. For the full year, the company increased its revenue estimate to $268 million to $270 million, compared to $253 million to $257 million. The Street was looking for $260.3 million.

TWLO will get some leverage on margins as well. The full-year guidance on the bottom line is for a loss of 23 cents to 21 cents, down from the prior forecast of 30 cents to 28 cents.

Twilio Is a Great Company …

Twilio’s growth ramp shouldn’t be surprising. The company had the foresight to go big on the mobile revolution back in 2008, and the payoff has been big. TWLO started with voice services and then quickly added others, such as messaging, video and authentication.

But TWLO was also smart to make it extremely easy and cost-effective for developers to implement the technology. Because of this, there has been wide-scale adoption. Consider that customers now include biggies like Uber, Salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE:CRM) and Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ:FB) WhatsApp.

Twilio also has strong barriers to entry. Just some of the key factors include a trusted brand, loyal base of developers, a rich feature set and a global infrastructure, which includes 22 datacenters across seven regions. So far, TWLO has faced little real competitive threats. This is a rarity in the fiercely competitive tech world.

The market opportunity is in its early stages, too. Only 16% of Twilio’s revenues come from outside the U.S.

But Twilio Stock Is Hard to Own

However, investors should still be cautious with TWLO stock. Even after the plunge, shares trade at a nosebleed price-to-sales ratio of 12x.

To put this into perspective, here’s a look at the multiples of other top cloud operators:

Company Price-To-Sales Ratio
Apptio Inc (NASDAQ:APTI) 5X
Box Inc (NYSE:BOX) 5.3X
Xactly Corp (NYSE:XTLY) 4.2X
New Relic Inc (NYSE:NEWR) 8.3X

In the meanwhile, Twilio stock has become one of Wall Street’s most popular short plays. A staggering 68% of TWLO’s float is in short positions!

Tom Taulli is the author of various books. They include Artificial Intelligence Basics and the Robotic Process Automation Handbook. His upcoming book is called Generative AI: How ChatGPT and other AI Tools Will Revolutionize Business.

 

The current market environment is fairly hostile to high-flying IPOs right now, too. Even solid companies like FB are having troubles with the turbulence, as seen in today’s trading.

My advice? Be patient with Twilio stock — which is good advice for any hot IPO. At some point, TWLO will find itself and become a buy.

Today is just not that point.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook. He is also the author of High-Profit IPO Strategies, All About Commodities, and All About Short Selling. Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2016/11/twilio-inc-twlo-stock-sinks-q3-earnings-iplace/.

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