Twitter Inc (TWTR): Q1 Earnings Must Show These 3 Things

Advertisement

Investors can rest assured Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) is not going to deliver a home run first-quarter earnings report; it’s not even likely to provide decent earnings. More likely, as analysts expect, it will be downright awful sending TWTR stock spiraling lower.

Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)

On the top line, analysts expect revenue of $512.65 million, a decline of 14% year-over-year; on the bottom line, the consensus of 33 analysts on a non-GAAP basis is $0.01 per share, considerably lower than its Q1 2016 earnings of $0.15 per share.

GAAP, non-GAAP, Swahili — it’s not looking good. A 14% YOY decline in revenue would be its first as a public company. Already off 9.7% year-to-date, TWTR stock needs some good news to breathe life into a stock that once had a market capitalization as high as $49 billion (January 2014) but now lingers around $10.7 billion.

Forget Twitter’s revenues and earnings for the time being and instead focus on three things when it announces Wednesday before the markets open.

TWTR: Tweetdeck Subscription

Twitter is currently surveying its users about the idea of implementing an advanced version of Tweetdeck that would allow professionals to get more from their Twitter experience. Projected to cost $20 per month, it’s still very much in the exploratory stage, so even if it went ahead with a paid service, it would be several quarters before it generates any revenue.

InvestorPlace contributor Lawrence Meyers recently discussed how a paid version of TWTR could be quite the boon to the top line, which has been slowing in recent quarters and is expected to decline in Q1 2017.

He reckons that if Twitter converts 3% of the 319 million monthly active users to the paid monthly subscription, it will generate $2.3 billion in recurring revenue, about the same amount as analysts estimate it will deliver in fiscal 2017 without the paid service.

If Twitter executes on this paid service, Meyers believes its valuation could double to $20 billion. Based on his conservative 3% subscription rate, I would have to agree. Personally, if the company doesn’t go ahead with this advanced version given its core business is weakening, I don’t see much hope for TWTR stock in 2017 and beyond.

I would pay close attention to what’s said on its conference call. If it fails to put the paid version front and center accentuating the positive (analysts will no doubt ask about it), I’d seriously wonder why.

Twitter’s Revenue Per User

Last October, I recommended that investors forget about TWTR stock and buy Angie’s List Inc (NASDAQ:ANGI) instead. Simply put, I thought Angie’s List changing from a paid service to a combination of both would ultimately grow its user base at a faster rate, which would result in a profitable business.

I also felt that the market was undervaluing Angie’s List’s revenue per user at 1.7 times its monthly active users (MAU) compared to Twitter at 5.6 times MAU. These are numbers I got from Big Picture blogger and financial planner Barry Ritholtz who wrote a great piece for Bloomberg around the same time.

“According to Statista, Twitter has 313 million monthly active users. I suspect that much of that is bots and fake click-farm accounts,” wrote Ritholtz. “Search for “buy Twitter followers,” and you will see that for $10, you can purchase 1,000 followers. (For the record, I never have, but I have seen others do it, and it is dishonest and bad form). My wild guess is that there are perhaps 100 million actual flesh and blood human beings on Twitter.”

Until Twitter can convince people that it’s not just a haven for spammers and bots, it’s going to have a hard time growing its user base. Lon- term, honesty is the best policy for TWTR stock.

During the conference call and in the 10-Q, I’d look for any clarity on this issue. If, as Ritholtz guesses, the user base is much lower than advertised, brands are going to be less inclined to spend their social media dollars with Twitter.

Eliminate Trolls

“Twitter has created a community, and it has no obligation to let anyone come in, free ride on what it has built and burn the place down,” wrote Ritholtz back in October. “Trolls and spammers and racists, as I discussed when I killed the comments on my own blog, don’t have the right to come to my cocktail party and insult me or my guests.”

In March, Twitter VP of Engineering Ed Ho updated users on how the company was making Twitter safer. In the second half of fiscal 2016, Twitter suspended 377,000 accounts, 162% more than in the same period a year earlier. Thanks to its proprietary technology it’s able to crackdown on offensive users.

That’s got to be a priority of the company in this earnings report and every quarterly report in the future until the abuses disappear entirely or drastically reduce in numbers.

TWTR Stock and Earnings

Twitter stock has surprised on the bottom line in each of the four most recent quarterly reports. It’s possible it will do so again on Wednesday.

Of the three points I’ve made here, the last two are issues that are ongoing and won’t solve themselves soon. The paid service, however, is something it has to run with regardless of whether it’s ultimately successful.

If it does not provide greater clarity on this, I would seriously hesitate to own TWTR stock. If it does, I’d still be hesitant, but more willing to entertain a small wager.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/04/twitter-inc-twtr-earnings-must-show-3-things/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC