Trade Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Stock for a Major Earnings Breakout

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Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) finds itself back in the earnings confessional after the close this Monday, and that presents an opportunity for GOOGL stock options traders.

By the numbers, Wall Street is expecting Alphabet to post a profit of $8.25 per share, down from earnings of $8.42 per share in the same quarter last year. However, revenue is expected to rise 19.3% to $25.64 billion.

Sentiment expectations are a bit on the high side, with EarningsWhispers.com putting the whisper number at $8.30 per share. Furthermore, Thomson/First Call reports that 38 of the 44 analysts following GOOGL stock rate the shares a “buy” or better.

The 12-month consensus price target of $1,065.67, however, represents a modest premium of only about 7.4% to yesterday’s close, leaving some wiggle room for price-target increases.

GOOGL Stock
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Technically speaking, GOOGL stock is at a critical point heading into Monday’s earnings. The shares are closing in once again on $1,000 after failing to hold support in the region back in early June.

Volume has been tepid throughout this rally, with GOOGL bulls lacking conviction in the wake of Goldman Sachs’ overbought note still weighing heavily on the shares.

The stage is now set for another rejection at $1,000, or a breakout to a much stronger rally in the wake of Monday’s report. Considering Alphabet’s track record, I’m betting on the latter.

And GOOGL options traders are as well.

Heading into Monday’s report, the July 28 put/call open interest ratio has fallen to a reading of 0.56, with calls nearly doubling puts among those contracts most affected by Alphabet’s report. What’s more, July 28 implieds are pricing in a potential move of about 4.2% for GOOGL stock, placing the upper bound at about $1,032, with the lower bound at $948.

Trading Update on GOOGL

Before we get to this week’s trades, let’s review our trading history on GOOGL stock. Last month, I talked about how Alphabet shares lacked the will to move higher in the absence of any major drivers. In fact, GOOGL stock remained largely capped by resistance in the $980 region, much to the chagrin of anyone following my headline recommendation from May 26 — a June $950 put sell — who were assigned GOOGL shares.

I set the bar pretty low for GOOGL last month, offering up a July $980 call sell as a means for divesting those shares and collecting a profit — a premium of about $20.13, or $2,013 per contract — but Alphabet didn’t want to play ball, and remained below $980 through expiration.  At least traders following this strategy were able to collect the premium.

Meanwhile, last month’s Jul $975/$980 bull call spread only just hit breakeven by the close at expiration, meaning that many of you either saw a slight return or a slight loss depending upon your actual entry point and brokerage fees.

We’re looking to turn that around this month!

2 Trades for GOOGL Stock

Call Sell (Covered): If you really want to ditch those GOOGL shares you’re holding, you can sell the in-the-money 28 July $980 call once again, and likely be exercised before earnings. This call was last bid at $25.76, or $2,576 per contract.

However, if you’re looking for a better return, the July 28 $1,000 call offers a better price for your shares if GOOGL rallies following earnings, and was last bid at $17.70, or $1,770 per contract.

If GOOGL doesn’t trade north of $1,000, you keep the premium and can repeat the process next month.

Call Spread: I believe that GOOGL stock is taking out $1,000 following earnings. Sentiment has been trending lower since the Goldman Sachs note, and Alphabet will be on the offensive this quarterly report. As I’ve noted before, GOOGL stock wants to rally, investors just need a reason to push higher. Monday’s report should give them that reason.

For those looking to bet bullish on GOOGL, the July 28 $1,010/$1,020 bull call spread offers a nice potential return. It’s also well within the expected move priced in by implieds. At last check, this spread was offered at $2.76, or $276 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $1,012.76, while a maximum profit of $7.24, or $724 per pair of contracts, is possible if GOOGL closes at or above $1,020 when July 28 options expire at the end of next week.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/07/trade-alphabet-inc-googl-stock-for-a-major-earnings-breakout/.

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