Since May, I’ve been a bear on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, saying that the run-up in AAPL stock has been on over-hyped expectations for an iPhone 8/X “super-cycle.”

In short, there’s no way Apple sells as many iPhones as the Street wants it to this year. That will cause AAPL stock, which has run-up 30% this year versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500, to fall pretty hard.

It looks like this correction in Apple stock has already begun.

AAPL stock is off about 7% since the company unveiled its new product offerings. The decline has been so noticeable that CNBC ran an article recently pointing out that Apple has shed about $50 billion in market cap ever since the new product reveal. CNBC notes that the $50 billion loss in market cap is bigger than the entire market value of Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY), TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F).

Is the market trying to say something here?

I think so — and I think investors should listen.

Apple Won’t Sell That Many iPhones This Year

There has been some troublesome news in the pipeline recently. Namely, the iPhone 8 has launched to very little fanfare.

As has been the trend with recent upgrades, there don’t seem to be enough new bells and whistles on the iPhone 8 to compel consumers to upgrade. A New York Times piece points out that the new model looks almost identical to the one before it. Buzzfeed and Mashable reviews sound a similar tone, saying that the iPhone 8 is more like the iPhone “7S”. One piece, from The Verge, says the phone feels “dated” relative to the Galaxy S8.

Perhaps that is why data from mobile engagement platform Localytics shows weak early adoption of the iPhone 8. According to Localytics, first-weekend sales of the iPhone 8 and iPhone Plus combined for 0.7% market share of all iPhone models, the lowest since the iPhone 5s in 2013.

The bullish spin on that data is that everyone is waiting for the $1,000 iPhone X.

But Apple has reportedly slowed iPhone X supplier orders. This is something the company did for the iPhone 7 in order to better gauge demand, so maybe its not a concerning move. Ultimately, though, slowed iPhone 7 supplier orders preceded disappointing iPhone 7 sales. Could we have a repeat this year with the iPhone X?

I think so. Granted, the iPhone X and iPhone 8 together will likely outsell the iPhone 7, but remember that AAPL stock has run-up some 30% this year to a 5-year high valuation.

Apple stock is going to need a lot more than just moderate year-over-year growth to keep its trailing earnings multiple at 17. Last year at this time, AAPL stock was trading around 13 times trailing earnings.

Can Apple get more than just moderate YOY growth? Probably not. The iPhone 8 has had a dead-duck launch. Meanwhile, the iPhone X costs a rather absurd $1,000 — and that is a price point many consumers will have trouble getting excited about. For example, only 17% of respondents in a MorningConsult poll said they would buy the pricey iPhone X, versus 21% buying interest in the iPhone 7 last year.

All in all, without robust iPhone growth, Apple stock will fall. Over the past several days, the outlook for that robust growth has grown increasingly bleak. So, AAPL stock is falling.

Bottom Line for AAPL Stock

The correction in Apple stock has begun. It’s down 7% since the new iPhone reveal.

A weak iPhone 8 launch puts a lot of pressure on the iPhone X to have big sales numbers. That pressure adds increased risk to a stock that is trading near a 5-year high valuation.

I think the decline is just beginning. The expectations have simply been built up too much — and now they are just starting to come down.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TGT, TJX, and NOC.