Just because you see bad news coming, does foreknowledge make things better when it arrives? That’s the question Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) investors must answer in light of the media giant’s third quarter earnings results. On a positive note, CMCSA proved some doubters wrong, producing an unexpected earnings surprise. But Comcast stock still dropped after the report for one simple reason: subscription declines.
Granted, the declines were telegraphed and anticipated. Prior to the Q3 earnings report, CMCSA management estimated “a loss of 100,000 to 150,000 video customers.” Wall Street consensus pegged their estimates at a 136,000 member loss. In the end, CMCSA pared the bearishness with 120,000 subs gone. Ordinarily, this would translate to higher optimism for the company. Unfortunately, the markets thought otherwise, with Comcast stock losing 1.5% against the prior day’s session.
It turns out that merely admitting bad news doesn’t exempt you from the consequences. But, much more important, the cord-cutting dilemma is an albatross negatively impacting all traditional media platforms. While CMCSA is forthright with their subscription declines, they don’t seem to have a substantive strategy to address the issue. Without that strategy, the consensus Comcast stock price forecast looks bleak.
For instance, in the pre-Q3 earnings disclosure, CMCSA executives blamed their subs erosion on both competition and Hurricane Harvey. Anyone that knows anything about contemporary media can see the damage that Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Amazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN) inflicted. But a natural disaster? That’s a stretch, and they know it. InvestorPlace contributor Larry Ramer wrote:
“According to research firm eMarketer, the cord cutting trend is growing ‘much faster’ than previously expected, Variety reported. In 2017, the number of U.S. cord cutters will reach 22 million, representing as 33% jump versus 2016, Variety quoted the firm as saying.”
Problems on Top of Problems for Comcast Stock
Even more ominous for Comcast stock, the bloodshed could only be the beginning. Ramer notes that telecommunications icon AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) lost nearly 400,000 subscribers in the last quarter. Clearly, the cord-cutting issue isn’t an organization-specific problem, it’s an industry-wide dilemma. Unless CMCSA has a paradigm-altering solution, its problems will likely worsen.
Ramer and many other analysts point out the current headwinds, and they are many. The movie industry is no panacea for Comcast stock, as competition is fierce for the remaining butts looking for seats. Hollywood is a fickle sector, and there’s no such thing as a sure thing. The exception, perhaps, is “Star Wars,” but of course, rival Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) owns the franchise.
“Meanwhile, the NBC broadcast network faced its own problems last quarter, including weak mid-morning ratings sparked by Megyn Kelly’s adjustment issues and declining ratings for NFL games. A look at the ratings of NBC’s primetime lineup as of September, meanwhile, suggests that the network’s ratings fell significantly year-over-year.”
If CMCSA had to deal with just these troubles, it would already imply a poor Comcast stock price forecast. But yet another telegraphed challenge looms on the horizon: demographics.
Gen-Y, or the Millennials, kicked traditional media in the nether regions with their penchant for social media platforms. But Gen-Z will veritably kill anachronistic broadcasters. You see, Millennials are the “transitional” generation. They grew up watching conventional programming, and in their formative years transitioned to the platforms we enjoy today.
Gen-Z, the oldest of whom are entering their first-year of college, have virtually no recollection of traditional media. They grew up during the advent of the digital age. When this demo first enters the workforce, they absolutely will not consider antiquated, subscription-based broadcasts. That’s the real bad news for Comcast stock.
Not Enough upside for CMCSA
CMCSA might counter with programming catering towards younger Millennials and emerging Gen-Z members. I think such attempts are a stretch at best. Technology moves people forward, not backward. Convincing Gen-Z to “uncut” the cord is like trying to convince a Millennial to do something useful without a smartphone.
I also believe the current problems, as well as the demographic problems, result in the ugly charts we see today. Comcast stock has been declining since mid-August of this year. Currently, its price action has taken CMCSA below the commonly-watched gauges in the 50 and 200 day moving averages.
The way events are set up, Comcast stock will fall further before it gets any better. The present headwinds are atrocious. But the upcoming storm could cripple the company, unless management pulls a miracle out of the bag.
As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
