Why Netflix, Inc. Stock Still Is Worth Its Insane Valuation

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As far as I can remember I haven’t written about Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) since last November. At the time I gave three reasons why NFLX stock was worth its insane valuation. Today, I revisit those reasons to see whether they still hold water.

nflx stock netflix stock

It’s Gained a Lot

The NFLX stock price is up 73% since I wrote about the streaming service November 15, 2016. Growth investors saw the big picture while value investors were left in the dust.

The question is whether it can deliver a repeat performance. To answer that, I’ll look at where it was and where it’s going to determine the odds of Netflix succeeding.

In my article, I opened the piece wondering why anyone would pay 300 times earnings for a company that had negative free cash flow. That was Q3 2016.

One year later it’s trading at 156 times 2017 earnings estimates, 86 times forward 2018 earnings and 52 times forward 2019 earnings. Profits are heading in the right direction. However, free cash flow only gotten marginally better — negative $465 million in Q3 2017 vs. $506 million a year earlier — which suggests it’s still spending more on content than it’s bringing in.

Eventually, that’s got to change, but given it continues to grow outside the U.S. much like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), investors are willing to give it a pass — for now. Netflix’s day of reckoning will come. Just not today.

Netflix is still growing

In last year’s third quarter, NFLX grew paid memberships by 4.3% sequentially. In this year’s third quarter it grew paid memberships on a sequential basis by 5.0% to 104.2 million, a year over year increase of 24.9%. In Q3 2016, it increased paid memberships by 26.1%.

I’d call that a wash. In my opinion, the velocity of growth remains intact.

“Picking up three million members outside the U.S. each quarter, Netflix should see its international memberships overtake its U.S. memberships sometime in Q2 or Q3 2017,” I wrote November 15. “And that’s without China coming on board anytime soon.”

Well, would you look at that? Netflix’s paid international memberships passed the U.S. in the third quarter. As for China, the company announced in April that it would enter the country through a licensing arrangement with iQiyi, one of China’s largest video streaming services.

There’s still plenty of fish to fry outside the U.S.

Bob Iger’s Going to Pass

By now we already know that Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) is setting up two of its own streaming services by late 2019 and in the process removing its content from Netflix. That’s going to have some effect on Netflix but probably less than people figure.

Netflix still has a lot of good content.

Iger obviously felt buying Netflix would be too costly given its earnings are already struggling; buying a business that currently drains $2 billion in cash annually isn’t a way back to higher profitability.

Disney’s loss will eventually be somebody’s gain. It’s going to be acquired sooner rather than later.

The CEO

Reed Hastings co-founded Netflix because he had a bunch of late fees for returning a movie late. At least that’s one of the stories making the rounds. Today, he’s worth more than $2 billion.

It doesn’t matter how he came up with the idea. All that matters is that he’s changed the way we watch television. Period.

Several times since its founding in 1997, Netflix has had to weather the naysayers who felt it couldn’t continue to spend money on content without going broke. Like market bears who stubbornly cling to their opinions, investors who trusted Hasting’s leadership have been handsomely rewarded over the past decade.

A $10,000 investment in NFLX stock in 2007 is worth almost $500,000 today, an annualized total return of almost 50%.

He’s done a pretty good job running the business. At some point, I’m sure he’ll do an even better one finding a wealthy buyer.

Bottom Line on NFLX Stock

As long as it keeps growing the top- and bottom-line, I see a stock that is cheaper today than it was a year ago which is crazy given how much it’s risen in the past 12 months.

The best stories often defy belief. Netflix is one of those stories.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/11/nflx-stock-insane-valuation/.

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