The good news is Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is growing. The bad news is that growth pace is slowing.

That slowdown is partially in response to a growing disinterest from consumers. But it’s largely in part to sheer saturation, at least here in the United States. It’s a different story in China.

It’s a situation that’s proven to be a conundrum for current and would-be owners of SBUX stock. And, though Thursday’s fiscal first-quarter 2018 report (due after the close) will certainly provide some insight as to what the future holds, the foreseeable is apt to remain a murky one.

Here’s what interested investors need to know before Starbucks delivers the news:

SBUX Q1 Earnings Preview

For its fiscal quarter that ended in December, analysts collectively expect revenue of $6.2 billion to translate into earnings of 52 cents per share of SBUX. That’s better than levels a year ago on both fronts, when Starbucks earned 52 cents per share by driving $5.7 billion in sales. Same store sales are projected to improve 3.1%.

Don’t get too excited just yet, though. Meeting or topping its earnings estimates isn’t a guarantee. The coffee chain has fallen short of same-store sales growth outlooks more often than not of late, and you can generally count on a revenue shortfall.

Those relative results are indicative of a company that grew so well in the past that its biggest competition has become itself.

Drilling Down on SBUX

Since 2010, Starbucks has added about 10,000 new units, bringing the tally to just a little under 28,000. The company says it’s looking to establish another 2,300 stores this year, after opening 2,250 in 2017.

Bigger is not necessarily meaningfully better, however. Though Starbucks reported after posting its fourth-quarter numbers it was looking for long-term per-share earnings growth of 12% — if not a little more – its same-store sales growth target has been pared back to a long-haul outlook of between 3% and 5%, globally.

Further artificial enhancement of the per-share profit total is a relatively robust stock buyback program. The company bought back 37 million shares of SBUX last year, though that was less than half the amount authorized; more of the same is on the way. Throw in the fact that it continues to make foods a bigger priority at the same time it’s pushing for more mobile ordering and enhancing its loyalty rewards program, it’s difficult not to wonder if Starbucks would otherwise be retreating.

Indeed, the new-and-improved product mix, along with the maintenance of membership programs — not to mention the necessary manpower — has proven to be expensive. EBIT margins fell from 19.9% in 2016 to 19.7% in 2017.

Looking Ahead for SBUX Stock

For better or worse, professional and amateur investors alike know to keep their expectations low. They also know, more or less, that if Starbucks is going to shine in a meaningful (read “profitable”) way, it’s best bet is in China, where consumerism from the middle class is still in its infancy.

In the United States, not only are less haughty choices like Dunkin Brands Group Inc (NASDAQ:DNKN) — you know it better as Dunkin Donuts — and McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) attracting more surprisingly-discriminate coffee drinkers, cultural shifts are in play. Starbucks used to thrive on “out-and-about” foot traffic, with many of its patrons headed to or from a mall. Shopping-as-entertainment continues to wane though, making it difficult for the coffee chain to capture customers.

That’s not the case in China, where the middle class is just now becoming an empowered group with plenty of discretionary income.

Better yet, Starbucks has recently made moves that will allow it to better capitalize on that rising tide. It’s converted that mostly-franchised market to company-owned stores. That allows it to reap all the profits generated there rather than just royalties and licensing fees. There are about 3,000 Starbucks in China now, with 600 more new ones planned for 2018.

The other shining star, oddly, is the company’s pre-packaged ground coffee options sold in grocery stores. They account only for about a tenth of Starbucks’ revenue, but it drives about a fifth of the company’s profits. And that segment is growing nicely.

Reality Check on SBUX

As well watched as the upcoming fourth-quarter report will be, it’s not likely we’ll hear answers to all the questions surfacing now that the company’s primary market — stores in the United States — are simply running out of places to set up shop.

The addition of new food items helps. But it also further complicates what’s been a relatively simple product/service. The roll-out of more digitally-based enticements has helped too. But even that effort isn’t driving as much growth as it used to.

The X-factor in all of this? Recent tax cuts.

It’s unlikely the company will offer a great deal of color on the impact of the recent tax-rate overhaul during Thursday’s call. On the other hand, it’s unlikely it will go entirely unmentioned.

Starbucks has already given raises to workers in anticipation of a smaller tax bill. And it certainly has to realize that American consumers are going to have a little more pocket money going forward.

The question is will Starbucks be able to extract it from their pockets? Or is that money already earmarked for other things? Somehow it seems like most American consumers have things other than coffee on their minds.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.