Why Take-Two Interactive Software Inc Is the Most Stable Gaming Stock

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Take-Two - Why Take-Two Interactive Software Inc Is the Most Stable Gaming Stock

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Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is the closest thing there is to a stable play in video gaming. Electronic gaming has always been a business of fads. And the stocks of video game companies can soar based off of the success of a single title.

Despite this, it turns out the right play is to focus on depth, on winning with the biggest, most expansive titles, pushing the creativity envelope as far as you can.

This seems counter-intuitive. After all the mobile games of Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA), like the Farmville franchise, were huge. Mobile games from Glu Mobile Inc. (NASDAQ:GLUU) could be rolled-out quickly and tied to celebrities like Taylor Swift. In both cases, advertising is the key business model.

But it’s the companies selling high-end console games that have the staying power. Companies like Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI) and especially Take-Two sell franchises, titles that dedicated gamers buy again and again as newest version is rolled out.

Vince Martin is correct. Take-Two is the best of the lot. Here is why.

Why Take-Two?

Take-Two has two divisions, Rockstar and 2K, but it’s Rockstar that’s the rock star. Rockstar is the outfit behind Grand Theft Auto, an action-adventure game originally launched in 2001.

The 2K unit is best-known for sports titles like NBA 2K. These franchises have new releases yearly, with each season of play, and fans look forward to them eagerly.

By starting with PCs and consoles, Take-Two gained the loyalty of dedicated gamers. They then rolled out profitable versions of each game for tablets, phones and hand-held gaming systems as those markets evolved.

Over the last five years Take-Two is up 815%, against a 135% gain for the NASDAQ. Assuming it hits analyst estimates of 98 cents earnings-per-share (EPS) for the December quarter, the company will be on pace to near $2 billion in sales for the year ending in March, with an estimated $3.06 EPS.

The secret on the stock is out and, as Martin notes, it’s pricey. The company, however, has positioned itself well to take advantage of the next turn of the video game wheel.

Buying Potential Franchises

It turns out that video games have a lot in common with movies.

Auteur developers often build hit games. And the budgets are big and keep getting bigger. You have mega-hits and lots of misses. The people who build these games are like movie producers.

Through its new Private Games division, Take-Two is offering independent, but established game developers stability to do their best work, a common platform for delivering the product and back end support. Thus, Private Games allows indie producers to focus on what they do best.

Four products are being developed initially, in a variety of genres — first-person shooters, role-playing games, and a sweeping historical drama.

By buying potential franchises from multiple top developers, Take-Two can avoid the problem of having too much tied to a specific title. Because of this new strategy, the company will likely avoid being derailed by things like the lawsuit filed by Leslie Benzies, who developed the top-selling titles in its Grand Theft Auto franchise.

The Bottom Line

Video game companies often rise and fall with one hit title, or one fast-moving trend, like Angry Birds, Farmville , or the augmented reality trend of Pokemon Go, from Niantic, Inc.

What investors are playing for — and what game companies most want — is something approaching stability. They want to be like movie studios, with enough varied product, from enough dependable producers, that investors can get a steady return.

That’s what Take-Two is evolving toward. It has a solid base of software, graphics and story-telling power with its franchises. And it’s investing in producers who can deliver new hits and franchises down the road.

Take-Two is the best bet in the industry because it’s the closest to finding this stability.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the historical mystery romance The Reluctant Detective Travels in Time, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies mentioned in this story.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at @danablankenhorn, connect with him on Mastodon or subscribe to his Substack.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/01/take-two-stable-gaming-stock/.

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