Why Visa Inc Stock Is Charged Up Heading Into Earnings

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Visa stock - Why Visa Inc Stock Is Charged Up Heading Into Earnings

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It might sound trite, but Visa Inc (NYSE:V) really is “everywhere you want to be” in 2018. Visa stock had a banner year in 2017, rising more than 47%. But, with rising interest rates and a new tax plan in place, this year could be even bigger for Visa.

We’ll get some clues on Visa’s outlook next month, when the company steps into the earnings confessional on Thursday, Feb. 1, after the close. Currently, Wall Street is expecting a profit of 97-cents-per-share on the quarter, up 15% from year ago results. Revenue is expected to rise 8.7% to $4.85 billion. The “whisper number” currently sits at a profit of $1.01-per-share.

But guidance may be the real key to Visa stock’s post-earnings strength. The Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates three times this year, with four of the Fed’s members calling for four rate hikes. The higher rates mean more money in Visa’s pockets. Furthermore, a stronger economy driven by the new tax cuts could fuel more credit activity.

All of this spells a stronger bottom line for Visa in 2018, one the company could detail in next month’s quarterly earnings report.

Market sentiment toward Visa stock is heavily bullish heading into the report. Thomson/First Call reports that 35 of the 39 analysts following V rate the shares a “buy” or better. The 12-month consensus price target sits at just $127.19, however, and it could see a bump or two in the wake of a solid report.

Elsewhere, short sellers want nothing to do with Visa stock. The number of Visa shares sold short plummeted by 21% in the most recent reporting period to 26.7 million. Short interest now accounts for about 1.45% of the stock’s total float.

Visa Stock
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The drawdown in short interest comes as Visa stock breaks out to all-time highs. The shares breezed past former resistance at $120 last week, and have shown few signs of slowing down. That said, Visa stock is trading firmly in overbought territory, so a pullback to support near $120 is possible heading into earnings.

Turning to Visa stock options, implieds are pricing in a potential post earnings move of about 3.5% in the February series. This places the upper bound at $126.25 and the lower bound at $117.75. As I noted above, support should hold near $120, making a pullback to $117 unlikely barring a poor earnings showing.

Meanwhile, a breakout above $125 and added attention from analysts could see Visa top the expected upside move.

Two Trades for Visa Stock

Call Spread: Traders looking to benefit from a post-earnings rally from Visa stock might want to consider a Feb $120/$125 bull call spread. At last check, this spread was offered at $1.20, or $120-per-pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $121.20, while a maximum profit of $3.80, or $380-per-pair of contracts — a potential 215% return — is possible if Visa stock closes at or above $125 when February options expire.

Put Sell: On the more conservative side, a neutral-to-bullish traders Feb $115 put has plenty of potential. This put was last bid at 90 cents, or $90-per-contract. As long as Visa stock trades above $115 through expiration, traders pursuing this strategy will keep the $90 premium. However, if Visa trades below $115 ahead of expiration, you could be assigned 100 shares for each contract sold at a price of $115-per-share.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/01/visa-inc-stock-is-charged-up-heading-into-earnings/.

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