Salesforce.com, Inc. Has Upside in a Long-Term Window

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Salesforce stock - Salesforce.com, Inc. Has Upside in a Long-Term Window

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Mad Money host and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer coined the FANG acronym back in 2013. Since then, those four industry-leading tech stocks have been the face of a raging bull market.

But Cramer thinks there is a new group of stocks which could be bigger winners over the next five to ten years. He called those stocks the Cloud King stocks, and they are expected to benefit hugely in the long-term as the cloud revolution continues to play out.

I’m not a fan of all the Cloud King stocks. I think some of them might actually be eaten alive by competition. But one of the Cloud King stocks that I do like is Salesforce.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:CRM).

Salesforce stock is up a blistering 175% over the past five years, thanks mostly to the cloud revolution. But its nearly 7% off its recent highs, thanks to broad weakness in tech stocks.

I’m not so sure Salesforce stock is a great buy just yet — tech stocks are really weak right now. But it’s getting to a point where I think long-term investors will be interested. Salesforce stock could easily get to $150 and up over the next several years.

Big Growth Ahead for Salesforce Stock

Salesforce is truly at the heart of the cloud and data revolutions.

CRM leverages data and analytics to deliver robust cloud solutions to enterprises that want data-driven insights on their customers. The volume of data globally is exploding higher right now, thanks to the mainstream emergence of the Internet-of-Things (IoT). The more valuable data there is floating around the world, the more companies turn to that data to provide insights. Moreover, the more companies that digitize their businesses, the more they will turn toward cloud solutions.

Thus, as the volume of data produced daily continues to explode higher and as businesses pivot to cloud-hosted solutions, demand for CRM’s suite of products will grow.

That is a robust growth narrative. The explosion of data and cloud-hosted solutions are two things that are very likely to continue over the next five to ten years.

Granted, there are a bunch of notable and legitimate competitors to Salesforce in this space. But like Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Salesforce’s market-leading position has hardly been threatened by these competitors. Revenue growth at CRM has hardly slowed over the past several years — despite tougher laps and bigger competitors. Back in 2014, revenues grew by 33%. In fiscal 2018, revenues grew by 25%.

That is only 8 percentage points of revenue growth slowdown over four years, or just 2 percentage points per year. Considering revenue growth is in the 25%-plus range, that is a pretty remarkable track record for Salesforce stock.

That revenue growth should get a big bump this year, thanks to Salesforce’s recent acquisition of Mulesoft Inc (NYSE:MULE). Many bears are gawking at the huge premium CRM paid for MULE, but the strategic fit makes a ton of sense.

Companies aren’t going all cloud. The most popular option in this transition is the hybrid cloud, which is a mix of cloud and on-premise solutions. Mulesoft provides solutions which tie together those cloud and on-premise solutions. Essentially, they create data communication networks for the hybrid cloud.

Because of its exposure to the hybrid cloud, Mulesoft grew revenues by around 60% last year.

Adding a big-growth hybrid cloud player into its portfolio gives Salesforce much-needed exposure to all parts of the cloud world, not just the pure cloud world. It also gives Salesforce a ton more data — and new customers. All of these things will turn into long-term benefits for CRM shareholders.

Bottom Line on Salesforce Stock

This is a 20%-plus revenue growth company with solid margin drivers over the next five years. That should easily lead to 30% earnings growth per year. That would put earnings in five years around $5 per share.

A market-average 25-times earnings multiple on that $5 earnings base gets you to a $125 stock in five years. But Salesforce stock won’t get a market average multiple. It will get a big growth multiple.

As such, a 30-times multiple gets you to a $150 stock, while a 35-times multiple gets you to a $175.

Either way, there is upside in a long-term window for Salesforce stock. At $120, the long-term return profile Salesforce stock isn’t great. But if the stock keeps falling to $110 and below, the return profile starts to look better and better.

Consequently, I’m watching Salesforce stock for now. And I’ll be a buyer if it keeps dropping alongside the rest of the tech sector.

As of this writing, the author did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 

 

 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/03/salesforce-com-inc-crm-stock-upside-long-term-window/.

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