3 Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season

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earnings - 3 Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season

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The stock market fumbled in the first quarter of 2018. Dragged down by inflation concerns, trade war fears, and technology growth risks, the S&P 500 posted its first quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2015.

3 Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season

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Q2 hasn’t gotten off to a great start, either. The S&P 500 is essentially flat thus far.

Overall, then, stocks are largely down since the last earnings season. But, this earnings season is expected to be really good. Earnings are expected to rise more than 17% year over year, the strongest growth rate in several years.

This is a favorable backdrop for buying stocks now. Sideways trading action into a strong report is the exact type of set up that leads to big gains.

But, not every stock in the market will be saved by earnings this time around.

Here’s a deeper look at which stocks look like juicy short opportunities this earnings season.

Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season: Twitter Inc (TWTR)

Social media company Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) has come under significant pressure recently, thanks to a data leak at Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), which has had widespread fallout as regulators and consumers take a second look at how these internet companies use data.

Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season: Twitter Inc (TWTR)

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TWTR stock has been a particularly big loser in this crisis. Other internet companies use consumer data to create micro-targeted advertising solutions, which marketing companies then buy. Twitter does this, too, but TWTR also has an entire Data Licensing business that outright sells consumer data to third-party buyers. That makes the company more susceptible to data regulations.

Moreover, that segment of Twitter is pretty big (roughly 14% of revenue last year) and is all of the fuel behind Twitter’s growth (data revenue rose 18% last year, while ad revenue fell 6%).

I don’t think Twitter’s Data Licensing business is at-risk in the long-term. Judging by Mark Zuckerberg’s first day in front of Congress, lawmakers don’t really have any idea how to regulate giant internet companies with tons of data. It likely won’t regulate them, either. If anything, Congress will simply throw some fines around.

But, TWTR stock is at risk in the near-term to what will likely be bad quarterly numbers.

Facebook has said that some advertisers have paused spending on its platform, but it’s unlikely advertisers paused spending only on Facebook. That pause in spending most likely swept through all of social media, including TWTR. That is especially bad because Twitter’s big move higher last quarter was thanks to its advertising business getting back into positive growth territory.

In all likelihood, ad revenue growth at TWTR likely fell back into negative territory this quarter. Considering TWTR stock is up roughly 10% since the last earnings report, bad numbers could cause this stock drop by quite a bit.

Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season: Under Armour Inc (UAA)

Athletic apparel company Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) has fallen on tough times over the past several years as the company has lost its cool and failed to compete at scale with larger peers like Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) and adidas AG (ETR:ADS). But, some investors were hopeful that a turnaround started with better-than-expected numbers in the company’s last earnings report. Revenue growth was positive. North American declines showed signs of moderation. Gross margins came in better than expected.

Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season: Under Armour Inc (UAA)

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But, I think that report was mostly just a fluke in an otherwise very troubled narrative.

Under Armour continues to find itself on the wrong side of the tracks in the athletic retail market. While Nike and Adidas continue to pivot their brands from niche-appeal, performance brands to mass-appeal, lifestyle brands by targeting the athleisure crowd and enlisting the endorsement of non-athlete celebrities, Under Armour has continually failed to make that pivot.

This is why UAA remains noticeably absent from the top five preferred clothing brands in Piper Jaffray’s semi-annual Taking Stocks With Teen Survey, despite Nike consistently holding the No. 1 spot and Adidas gradually climbing to the No. 3 spot.

This quarter, the numbers likely won’t be good for Under Armour. Adidas remains red-hot, as illustrated by the Piper Jaffray survey. Nike is staging a huge comeback, with operations in the North American market nearing a critical inflection point, according to management. With Nike and Adidas surging, I think that means Under Armour is falling back.

UAA stock is up 20% since its last earnings report. Clearly, expectations are primed for at least decent numbers. But, the numbers won’t even be decent, and that could cause UAA stock to drop in a big way.

Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season: Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)

Over the past several months, the action in shares of mall retailer Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) has mirrored developments in the company’s M&A process.

Stocks That Could Be Big Losers This Earnings Season: Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)

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A few months back, rumors started popping up that the Nordstrom family wanted to take JWN private. They wanted to make massive investments into the retailer so that it would be better adapted to thrive in today’s dramatically different retail environment. Such massive investments are more easily made on a private basis, rather than a public one.

In early 2018, it looked increasingly likely that a deal would go through. But, in late March, the Nordstrom company broke off go-private talks with the Nordstrom family.

And then, all the sudden, JWN stock lost its M&A catalyst.

Now, JWN stock trades considerably higher than where it traded a year ago, yet Google Trends show that online search interest in the department store is relatively flat year over year.

Consequently, I don’t think this quarter’s numbers will be good enough to send JWN stock higher. In fact, the opposite could happen — JWN stock could wind up a loser this earnings season.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/3-stocks-big-losers-earnings-season/.

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