Progressive Corp Stock Is Too Overpriced to Even Consider

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Progressive stock - Progressive Corp Stock Is Too Overpriced to Even Consider

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I’ve covered a lot of companies before, but Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) is the first one I characterize as “lovable.” We’ve all seen their commercials, which offer the perfect blend of quirkiness, humor, and brand establishment. Plus, who doesn’t love their spokesperson, Flo? That said, I can’t say I have too much love for Progressive stock.

I know such a statement sounds sacrilegious. Progressive stock has been one of the best names in the market. Over the past five years, the insurance company has gained over 138%, largely providing shareholders steady annual gains. That’s not surprising considering that this is a secular company. No matter how good or bad the economy is, everybody needs insurance.

This secular concept is especially crucial at this juncture, when the major indices are flashing red. When you look at the Progressive stock stock chart, you couldn’t tell that the markets are in crisis mode. In fact, since its closing high of this year, shares are down only 3%. Contrast that with industry rival Mercury General Corporation (NYSE:MCY), which is down a staggering 14.2%.

While I admit that these statistics are impressive, I’m not sold on Progressive stock. We have to remember that the markets aren’t a celebration of past achievements. The real question is whether the company can keep its market momentum alive.

I have serious doubts, and here are my reasons why:

Progressive Insurance is Crazy Expensive

I admit that the following argument is anecdotal. With that said, I encourage everyone, whether you want to buy Progressive stock, or Progressive insurance, to check their rates. I believe you’ll come to the same conclusion: their insurance is crazy expensive.

Recently, I had a fairly nasty dispute with my current auto insurance provider, so I researched other options. Progressive was one of the first options I considered. However, the price was definitely not right. Had I gone with them, I would have had to pay $400 more for an equivalent six-month policy!

Listen, I hated my current provider, but I didn’t hate them to pay another company a $400 premium. Instead, I stormed into my insurance company’s headquarters, raised my voice a few times and settled the dispute. This took a toll on my mental health, but I’ll be saving $800 a year by not going with Progressive.

Of course, my not choosing them will not impact the PGR stock chart in any way. Still, if more people got wind of how expensive Progressive is, that might change things.

Girl Needs to Get Paid!

Like I mentioned at the top, everyone loves Flo. She’s the face of the company, and her comedic timing and personality makes their quirky commercials work. But such talent doesn’t come cheap.

Thus, we arrive at the non-anecdotal portion of my earlier argument: their insurance plans are expensive for a reason. When you look at the financials for Progressive stock, you’ll see robust revenue growth. But look a little deeper at the details, and you’ll see rising expenses everywhere.

So while revenues have increased more than 38% in the last four years, the operating margin has declined 19%.

US auto, home sales, PGR stock
Source: Source: JYE Financial, unless otherwise indicated
But here’s the thing: I wouldn’t have a problem with the declining margins if automotive sales were also growing, but they’re actually stagnating. You can say the same thing about existing home sales and especially new home sales.

What you’re left with is a costlier business in declining industries. This is not a great recipe for longer-term growth, which is why I’m hesitant on PGR stock.

For Progressive Stock, More is More

Before anyone makes a decision on Progressive stock, I highly recommend reading our own Tom Taulli’s write-up on the company. He lists three reasons why you should buy PGR shares, providing a different perspective.

Taulli raises great points. However, I can’t help but notice a recurring theme in his arguments, which is essentially “more is more.” Progressive has more footprints, more employees, more commercials and more investments in platforms like Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU).

And while our mutual colleague Lawrence Meyers argues that Progressive’s expenditures relative to customer acquisitions have been very efficient, the upfront costs are worrisome, especially in declining industries.

Therefore, I must respectfully but wholeheartedly disagree with Taulli’s statement that Progressive offers “compelling bundle plans.” For me, Progressive’s quote was outrageously expensive, and now I know why. When you’re scaling up with a “more is more” attitude, somebody has to pay for that extra cost.

When Progressive gave me their quote, I just did the quick math, and the math didn’t work out. I suspect today’s tech-savvy generation would do the same. This leads me to believe that PGR stock has seen its best days. That’s why I’m not their policy holder nor their bag holder.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/price-not-right-pgr-stock/.

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