How to Trade Snap Inc for a 150% Return Ahead of Earnings

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SNAP stock - How to Trade Snap Inc for a 150% Return Ahead of Earnings

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Most of the major players in the social media market have come and gone this earnings season. Both Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) put up impressive quarterly numbers and user growth. It’s now Snap Inc’s (NYSE:SNAP) turn in the earnings confessional, and the shares are primed for another big contrarian rally.

Wall Street doesn’t like Snap, that much is clear. Despite Snap’s dominance in the next generation of social media users, investors remain uncertain about the company’s revenue streams. Admittedly, relaunching previously failed hardware doesn’t help the company’s case.

But we’ve seen before what happens with SNAP stock when Wall Street underestimates the company. Back in February, Snapchat stock rocketed more than 40% after the company crushed quarterly earnings expectations. With both Facebook and Twitter reporting similar results this time around, Snap could once again turn in an unexpectedly good performance.

For the quarter, analysts are looking for a loss of 17 cents per share. Revenue, however, is expected to surge 62% to $243.55 million. EarningsWhispers.com puts the whisper number at a loss of just 15 cents per share, and anything close to that figure should spark a significant rally.

Providing additional fuel for this rally was SNAP stock’s kneejerk plunge of nearly 7% yesterday. SNAP sold off after the company announced another version of its redesigned app interface, which it rolled out to a small group of users for testing. The plunge was reminiscent of the Kylie Jenner tweet that sent Wall Street into a tizzy over Snap’s interface.

The results will be the same as well. SNAP stock will bounce back sharply, and earnings should help quickly boost short-term returns for investors. Technically, SNAP held support at $14.50 despite the plunge.

SNAP stock
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Additionally, the shares were already in rally mode after filling in their February post-earnings gap higher. Moderate resistance lies at $15, home to Snap’s 200-day moving average, with more staunch resistance near $16.50 and the 50-day moving average.

On the sentiment front, there is plenty of room for improvement following a positive quarterly report. Thomson/First Call reports that only six of the 36 analysts following the shares rate them a “buy.” The 12-month price target is also underwhelming at $15.42. Another solid quarterly earnings performance could finally shake some of these bears loose and send SNAP stock higher.

Another potential driver for a rapid SNAP stock rally is short interest. Currently, more than 14.75% of SNAP’s float is sold short. This wealth of shorted shares could create a short-squeeze situation, thus exacerbating its rally.

Turning to SNAP options, the May series is pricing in a potential post-earnings move of more than 18%. This places the upper bound at $17.15 and the lower bound at $11.85.

2 Trades for SNAP Stock

Bull Call Spread: With SNAP stock already rebounding from yesterday’s kneejerk plunge, the path higher looks solid. All that Snap needs is a repeat of its February earnings performance and SNAP stock bulls are set. Traders looking to capitalize on a post earnings rally might want to consider a May $16/$17 bull call spread.

At last check, this spread was offered at 28 cents, or $28 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $16.28, while a maximum profit of 72 cents, or $72 per pair of contracts — a potential 157% return — is possible if SNAP stock closes at or above $17 when May options expire.

Put Sell: For a more neutral play on SNAP stock, traders might consider a May $12 put sell. At last check, this put was bid at 35 cents, or $35 per contract. The upside to this put sell strategy is that you keep the premium as long as SNAP stock closes above $12 when May options expire.

The downside is that should SNAP trade below $12 ahead of expiration, you could be assigned 100 shares for each sold put at a cost of $12 per share.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/snap-inc-snap-stock-returns-earnings/.

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