My bearishness on coffee house operator Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is well-known to anyone who reads my articles. Ever since last year, I’ve called Starbucks stock the ultimate “sideways stock,” as slowing growth from increased competition has converged on a premium valuation.

Indeed, since 2016, Starbucks stock has done nothing but bounce between the lower $50s and lower $60s with a net change of down 8%.

Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any better for Starbucks stock.

Chairman and former CEO Howard Schultz is stepping down after a 40-year career with the company to likely focus on political pursuits.

That is a big deal. Schultz was “the guy” at Starbucks. And now, Starbucks is facing arguably its biggest competitive threats ever without their guy who has been there for 40 years.

That doesn’t bode well for the company’s go-forward growth prospects. Nor does it bode well for the stock’s go-forward growth prospects.

As such, I’m sticking with my label for Starbucks stock: the sideways stock.

Here’s a deeper look.

The Schultz Departure Confirms Bear Thesis

In many senses, Schultz’s departure confirms the bear thesis on Starbucks stock.

Starbucks has unequivocally settled into an era of slower growth. This used to be a company with a 25-consecutive quarter streak of 5% or greater comparable sales growth, huge traffic gains in China, and steady traffic gains in the U.S. and Europe.

Now, those historical norms couldn’t be further from reality. Comparable sales growth has been stuck below 5% for several quarters in a row and is only slowing. Over the past two quarters, global comparable sales growth was just 2%. Traffic growth is flat in both the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, Starbucks is seeing sizable traffic declines throughout Europe.

This is more than a cycle. This is a major downturn in growth across the board. And it’s largely a result of rising competitive threats.

Namely, Dunkin Brands Group Inc (NASDAQ:DNKN) is expanding its geographic presence, McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) is aggressively expanding and promoting its breakfast drink and snack menu, and indie coffee shops are popping up left and right.

In the big picture, Dunkin Donuts and McDonald’s are stealing away price and convenience-oriented consumers, while indie coffee shops are stealing away trend-oriented consumers.

These trends aren’t reversing any time soon. And the last big hope for Starbucks to combat rising competition was Schultz. As Morgan Stanley notes, Schultz was “the one who could and did step in when needed.”

But now, there is no more Schultz, and Starbucks is left to fight against its biggest competitive threats without the man who led them from 11 stores to over 28,000 stores over the past 40 years.

Starbucks Stock Isn’t Worth Much More Than $50

Overall, the Schultz departure gives me greater conviction in my go-forward growth prospects for SBUX.

Comparable sales growth is stuck in the low single-digit range and will not improve in the foreseeable future thanks to the competition only getting stiffer. Unit growth won’t get a big boost anytime soon with unit economics stagnating, and mid single-digit unit growth is likely here to stay.

That combination of low single-digit comparable sales growth and mid single-digit unit growth should drive high single-digit revenue growth going forward.

Meanwhile, margins won’t get any big bump anytime soon. Any expense leveraging will likely be largely offset by wage hikes, implying that historically steady 20% operating margins are here to stay.

That combination of high-single digit revenue growth and flat operating margins around 20% doesn’t exactly spell big growth. Under those assumptions, I think SBUX can net around $3.70 in earnings per share in five years.

A market-average growth stock multiple of 20 times forward earnings on $3.70 implies a four-year forward price target of $74. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a present-day value of just above $50.

Bottom Line on SBUX Stock

Starbucks has been the ultimate sideways stock for two-plus years. Schultz’s departure amid intensifying competition confirms that Starbucks will remain the ultimate sideways stock into the foreseeable future.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long MCD.