Life is good as a Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) investor. Just a little less than a year ago, the company launched its initial public offering. After several weeks of disappointing trading, ROKU stock shot up, ending 2017 on an extremely positive note. Following another bout of weakness for the first half of this year, shares are right back at new highs.
The difference this time around is that the bullishness appears fundamentally justified. It’s one thing for an upstart to produce a solid earnings result every now and then. But to do so not only consistently, but against serious competition? That’s the kind of performance that makes even casual investors stand up and take notice.
As InvestorPlace writer Karl Utermohlen detailed, Roku produced outstanding metrics for its second quarter fiscal 2018 earnings report. The streaming-device company shocked Wall Street when it brought in $526,000 of net income, or zero cents a share. Consensus target called for a 15-cent-per-share loss.
Moreover, the break-even performance was a massive turnaround from the year-ago quarter. At that time, the company lost $15.5 million, or $3.18 per share.
On the revenue side, Roku rang up $156.8 million, which easily blew apart the consensus $141.1 million. In Q2 2017, the company mustered $99.6 million. Unsurprisingly, following the robust results, ROKU shot up to record highs.
While Q2 was surprisingly strong, investors should also consider the risk that the low-hanging fruit for ROKU stock is gone. Additionally, some factors indicate that the earnings report wasn’t that great.
MAU Growth Is Actually Mixed
During the Q2 conference call, Roku founder and CEO Anthony Wood highlighted that monthly active users (MAUs) increased to 22 million. That’s nearly a 46% lift from the year-ago quarter in which the company produced 15.1 million.
The mainstream media also praised the streaming-device maker for the MAU haul, and for good reason. It really was an impressive result, and I can see why investors are enthused about ROKU stock.
That said, the devices themselves are relatively cheap. According to the company’s website, prices start at $30. And better yet for customers, Roku doesn’t charge monthly equipment rental fees. With such great deals, the organization should be pulling in more customers.
What I’m trying to say is that Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) levers 130 million subscribers. Amazon.com’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime service has over 100 million subs. Granted, they’re not exactly equivalent to Roku, but they’re both achieving robust sub growth with larger numbers.
Since Roku has the smaller numbers, I’d like to see stronger percentage growth for me to justify ROKU stock at its current price.
Look at it this way: the company’s sequential quarter-to-quarter sub growth slipped into single digits for Q1 and Q2 of this year. That’s landed Roku into Netflix territory, which isn’t that impressive since again, Netflix must overcome the law of large numbers.
Insiders Selling ROKU Stock
I believe tracking insider transactions provides insights that you don’t receive from other analytical methodologies. It’s not an end-all, be-all because at the end of the day, the markets determine a stock’s trajectory. But who better to determine overall sentiment than the people directly tied to the organization?
Therefore, I find it curious that every insider is selling ROKU stock. Now let me back up for a second. I don’t mean literally everyone because I can’t say that for certain. But according to Gurufocus.com, all insider transactions have been sell orders.
The most recent sell order? That came from none other than CEO Anthony Wood for 370,486 shares.
Please don’t get me wrong. I’m not at all suggesting that Wood or other executives believe ROKU stock is going to sink. Certainly, I cannot speak for the individual motivation for selling.
What I do know is that they’re selling at a time when you might be considering buying. Does that classify as a contrarian move if you do buy? I don’t think so. Reading between the lines, those who got in early saw the incredible burst in market value as an opportunity to take profits.
In my opinion, buying ROKU stock now invites unnecessarily tough challenges.
Fierce Competition Weighs on ROKU Stock
Admittedly, what I’m about to say next isn’t original. Countless of my InvestorPlace colleagues have written extensively about the long-term competitive risks that ROKU stock faces. But my lapse in creativity doesn’t mean the argument is any less valid.
I like what our own Will Healy recently discussed. Essentially, while Healy respects what Wood has done for his organization, ROKU stock is simply too stretched. True, the company has a stronghold in streaming devices. However, the big boys aren’t going to let a small fish dictate terms.
This situation worries me because the small fish is dumping out of its position. If you really want to get involved with ROKU stock, the better decision is to wait.
As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.