Disney Bets Big on Lots of Risky Projects at a Dangerous Time

Advertisement

DIS - Disney Bets Big on Lots of Risky Projects at a Dangerous Time

Source: Flickr

The time to invest aggressively in your company’s growth is in a strong economy that will immediately begin providing a return on that investment. That’s just Business 101 — and largely explains some of the costly initiatives Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) has taken on of late. Like it or not, the economy is roaring, and consumers are spending.

Current and prospective owners of DIS stock, however, may want to carefully scrutinize just how much the entertainment giant is taking on. Recurring, non-capital expenses have been getting frothy for the company anyway, and Disney has selectively added to that burden. Chief among those costs, of course, is its recent decision to acquire Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA)(NASDAQ:FOX) for $71.3 billion worth of cash and Disney stock. Oh, and all of this is happening against a backdrop of operating income that’s been stagnant since 2016 — despite rekindled revenue growth.

Is Disney biting off more than it can chew right in front of economic turbulence not many people see coming?

Racking Up the Bills

At first glance, it almost reads like a throw-away headline — an obligatory announcement. That is, Walt Disney is in talks with the city of Miami regarding the construction of seaborne ports to accommodate two of the three new cruise ships it has already ordered.

It’s no big deal in the sense that Disney is already an established cruise player. At a typical cost of $900 million each for the boats, the company recently added to its four-ship fleet. It’s not an outrageous assumption to think Disney has committed roughly $3 billion to bolster its fleet size in the foreseeable future.

For perspective, DIS has only banked about $12 billion worth of income over the course of the past four quarters.

The company hasn’t said how it will pay for the cruise ships on order, although presumably they’ll be financed one way or another; Disney is no stranger to debt. Indeed, it’s taking on $13.8 billion worth of debt Fox was sitting on to get that deal done. That will be be added to the $17.7 billion worth of long-term debt on Disney’s books before the Fox deal was finalized.

Then there’s the ballyhooed construction of Star Wars lands, called Galaxy’s Edge, at Florida’s and California’s locales. These attractions will certainly draw a crowd that might have otherwise not visited one of the company’s resorts. But each is estimated to cost roughly $1 billion to construct.

Costs for DIS

Meanwhile, workers at its California theme parks will see their wages grow from a minimum of $11 per hour now to $15.45 by the middle of 2020. There are only about 10,000 of these employees — a manageable expense for the behemoth of the company. But, against a backdrop of rising wages all over the country — and not enough available, qualified workers to hire — it may only be a matter of time before employees at other Disney parks and resorts utilize their comparable bargaining power.

Less clear are the costs associated with the recently-launched streaming access to Disney’s ESPN, and the soon-to-launch rival to Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). The development of a delivery platform shouldn’t cost a great deal; the company already owned most of BamTech, which specializes in the development of video streaming platforms. The marketing needed to bring either service to meaningful scale, however, won’t be cheap. Netflix, which is widely regarded as “the” name in video streaming, spent 13% of last quarter’s revenue on marketing and advertising.

Throw in the fact that Disney reportedly lost enough money on its latest installment of Star Wars films, featuring Han Solo, that it’s reconsidering how much it actually wants to invest in the franchise, and an uncomfortable number of red flags are waving.

Don’t misread the message. Organizations have to spend money to make money, and these expensive investment may well pay off — in time. They may not pay off enough, however. Despite Disney’s prowess, it’s struggled to do as well as most analysts have believed it should have of late.

Perhaps most concerning to DIS shareholders, however, is the potentially-bad timing of all these initiatives.

The cruise ships are a long-term investment that won’t even start being delivered for a couple of years. The company’s two streaming services will start to bear fruit much sooner. But the acquisition of subscribers is a slow-burn process. Both of the company’s Star Wars-themed lands are expected to open in the middle of next year, when the next entry of the increasingly-troubled Star Wars saga was supposed to make its way into theaters.

Bottom Line for DIS Stock

All of these products, platforms, motion pictures and places will certainly turn heads. They may only start getting full traction, however, right as the economy bumps into the headwinds of a recession. Porta Advisors’ Beat Wittmann, for one, fears it could take shape as soon as next year. That leaves Disney possibly paying newly-incurred bills that aren’t being offset by as much revenue as presently expected.

It’s not a warning of doom for Disney, but it’s something DIS shareholders should keep in mind. The bills are piling up. And it’s not clear the money is being spent on things with a rock-solid, quick payback.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/09/disney-dis-stock-bets-big-risky-projects-dangerous-time/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC