The whole pot stock craze was undeniably a bubble. As the broader markets have tumbled into correction territory, pot stocks have gone from red hot to ice cold. Fan-favorite marijuana stocks like Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC), Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY), Cronos (NASDAQ:CRON) and Aurora (NYSE:ACB) have all dropped between 35% and 50% off their October highs!
The pot stock bubble has popped, yes … but that doesn’t mean there aren’t solid investments in the cannabis sector. In this pot stock washout, there is opportunity.
The same thing will happen in the cannabis space. This isn’t bitcoin 2.0.
Unlike cryptos and much like the internet, the cannabis sector has healthy long-term growth fundamentals and huge upside potential through mainstream global adoption. At this point in time, it is tough to say who the Amazon and Alphabet’s will be in the cannabis space. But, there is one clear leader in the group: CGC.
CGC stock is unrivaled in the cannabis sector in terms of scale, reach, distribution, production capacity, financial backing, R&D spend and public awareness. As such, if you’re going to buy a pot stock after this selloff, the one to buy is CGC.
That doesn’t mean a bottom is in. Pot stocks are inherently risky, and in this suddenly bearish market, they look riskier than ever, CGC included.
You don’t buy CGC stock for an overnight trade … you buy it because it has enormous upside potential in a long-term window. From this perspective, CGC stock is a solid pick-up on this selloff for multi-year oriented investors.
The Cannabis Industry Promises to Be Huge
Let’s be clear here: cannabis is not bitcoin 2.0.
The bitcoin hype came and went overnight, and hasn’t returned since because there really isn’t much of a fundamental-driven story underlying cryptocurrencies. The use-cases are increasingly niche and unproven, the mass public doesn’t have any interest in bitcoin outside of it being a way to make a quick buck, and the inherent value of bitcoin is widely up for debate.
You don’t have those problems in the cannabis space. The use-cases of cannabis are broad and proven (cannabis is increasingly being used for both recreational and medicinal purposes). The mass public has a huge interest in cannabis, as smoking weed is arguably as common as drinking in many areas, and is factually almost as common as drinking among high school seniors in America. And, the inherent value of cannabis isn’t up for debate, as its long-term value is tied directly to revenue and profits.
On that front, the long-term value of the cannabis space is quite large. The recreational cannabis market in Canada measured $6 billion in 2017. Inevitably, that number will grow as legalization prompts new people to try cannabis (read this story about first-timer Genevieve Despres). Thus, most estimates peg Canada’s recreational cannabis growing to be anywhere between $6 billion and $9 billion over the next several years.
Meanwhile, the medical cannabis market in Canada is projected at $3 billion in annual revenues. Thus, between the medical and recreational markets, we are talking about roughly a $10 billion annual revenue opportunity.
And that is just in Canada.
The U.S. alcoholic beverage market measured $120 billion in revenues in 2016. The U.S. recreational cannabis market could get that big if legalization becomes the norm (and the trend indicates it will, as only two states were exploring cannabis legalization in 2001, versus twenty-five today).
Thus, in the U.S. and Canada alone, the cannabis industry has $130 billion revenue potential. If you reasonably assume the rest of the world is roughly that size, you are talking about the global cannabis market one day being worth more than $250 billion!
This Looks Like a Good Entry Point for Canopy Growth Stock
In the grand scheme of things, the cannabis market doesn’t have “internet big” potential, but it does have “$250 billion big” potential.
From this perspective, the cannabis market won’t spawn multiple hundred billion dollar companies like the internet has. But, it will reasonably spawn a few $20 billion to $100 billion companies.
At this point in time, it is tough to say with any certainty who all those companies will be. But, there is one company that makes a pretty strong argument for being in that top tier in a decade.
That company is Canopy Growth.
CGC is second to none in terms of potential cannabis investments. The company has a massive $4 billion investment from the major alcoholic beverage company Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ). CGC also has a wide portfolio of recreational and medicinal brands, spends a fair amount on R&D to further grow and enhance that portfolio, and has a venture arm that is further diversifying investor exposure to the cannabis market.
Moreover, CGC is the sales leader in the Canadian cannabis market with over $70 million in sales over the past twelve months. The two most other talked about pot stocks, Tilray and Cronos, have less than $45 million in combined sales over the past twelve months.
Overall, CGC is the best in class in the cannabis space. Meanwhile, now looks like an especially good time to buy into CGC stock. Most of the hype from the cannabis craze has died down with broader market turmoil and supply shortage issues during the rollout of legal weed in Canada, so you aren’t chasing a rally here. Also, the current stock price hovers below where STZ purchased 104 million shares back in August. And, the lower $30s have served as a solid line of support for this stock over the past several months.
Bottom Line on CGC Stock
The cannabis bubble has popped. But, that doesn’t mean it is time to throw in the towel on all pot stocks. Instead, the bubble popping means it is time to separate the potential winners from the potential losers.
When you do that, you’ll find that CGC stands alone in the winner pile. That doesn’t mean the selloff is over or that this stock won’t be choppy going forward. Instead, it means that five years down the road, shares of Canopy Growth should be way higher than where they are today.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long CGC, AMZN and GOOG stock.